Transcript of Retail Sales Drop, U.S. Warships in Distress, Accurately Polling the Electorate New

New economic numbers show Americans pulling back on spending. Sales were down at gas stations, grocery stores and car dealerships in July.

Paychecks for American workers keep losing ground to inflation.

I'm Aitor Peralta.

I'm Danielle Kurtzleben, and this is Up First from NPR News. The price of gas is high. People's wages aren't keeping up. Employers also shed tens of thousands of jobs in July, squeezing people even more.

Sailors aboard some US warships are sending distress signals as the war in Iran drags on. The water is contaminated, the equipment is breaking down, and they need fresh food.

And finally, how accurate has polling been so far this election cycle?

Stay with us, we have the news you need to start your weekend.

A lot of us are short on time.

But is our time really going where we want it to?

They say when your schedule begins to align with your values is when we begin to feel that inner peace.

How to take a time audit and other timely advice on the Life Kit podcast. Listen to Life Kit on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

For years, Black capitalism has been sold as Black excellence.

One of its biggest proponents is Jay-Z.

He's asking us to say, "You can't knock the hustle." And I'm sorry, like, I just, I feel like I can.

Listen to NPR's Code Switch podcast in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

How did we get here? That's a question we have been trying to answer a lot here at NPR. We are exploring global histories on Throughline. We're hearing from national security experts on Sources and Methods. We're watching the markets with Planet Money. You can support this work across all our podcasts with NPR+. Find out more at plus.npr.org.

Government number crunchers gave us a flurry of economic data this week. Put together, it helps to color in a picture of the ways that Americans are making, saving, borrowing, and spending money.

NPR's Scott Horsley and Alina Selyukh join us now. Hey there.

Hello. Hello.

Good morning.

So, Alina, let's start with you. What's happening with prices these days?

Well, they're still going up, but not as fast as they had before. In fact, inflation cooled for the second month in a row in July, which is the latest data that we got this week. So from June to July, consumer prices rose just 0.1%. And that's a reprieve from the sharp price increases we saw in late spring after the US war with Iran began. The cost of groceries actually fell slightly from June to July. The one big reason was big discounts on lettuce as supermarkets are, you know, trying to get people to buy leafy greens after the cyclospora cases. Beef prices are still rising, but chicken and eggs are costing less. And then there's the big question of gas prices.

The eternal question of gas prices.

Yes. Gasoline prices fell a bit in July, which they also did in June, but they are still up quite a bit from a year ago. Federal data showed gas prices in July were up nearly 25% from last year.

And the challenge for a lot of families has to do with a mismatch between what's happening with prices and what's happening with their paychecks. Even though inflation has cooled off in the last couple of months, wage gains have slowed down even more. You know, the job market's kind of stuck in neutral. People aren't switching jobs very often. And so employers are not having to pay as much to attract workers as they did a year or two ago. Over the last 12 months, average wages have gone up just 3.2%. So even with somewhat tamer inflation, The typical paycheck is buying less today than it was a year ago. And that's a turnaround. For most of the last 3 years, wages were rising faster than prices. So people were gaining ground and catching up to the high cost of living. Now that's reversed.

And I suppose you would expect spending to go down as a result.

You would expect that. But actually, depending on how you measure, you get different answers. So this week, we got new data on retail sales, which is, you know, spending on cars at stores and restaurants. And for the first time in months, this retail retail spending did decline, down 0.6% from June to July. But the meaning of it is not so straightforward because this is a comparison month to month. And the biggest drag on that was the fact that Amazon shifted the timing of its big Prime Day summer sale event, and it shifted to earlier, to June. So people did more of their online shopping in June and a lot less in July. But then it's important to look also at the comparison from a year ago. And looking that way, retail sales were up by 5%, which is a bit of a slowdown, but not a huge one. And people keep buying more things that are not necessities, like gardening supplies or sporting goods.

Scott, if paychecks aren't keeping pace with prices, how are people covering their expenses?

In some cases, they're borrowing. You know, a report from the New York Fed this week shows that credit card debt continued to grow in the spring. That's not unusual. And so far, we're not seeing big signs of distress, like a jump in late payments. But for people who do carry a balance on their credit card, that is a very expensive way to borrow.

And actually, I want to mention an interesting thing from this week's report by Bank of America. Researchers there analyzed spending on the bank's debit and credit cards. And what they found is that spending by lower-income shoppers actually increased in July while spending by higher-income folks declined, which is a new thing, right, Scott?

Well, yeah, it would be at odds with what we've heard about for a long time, the so-called K-shaped economy, which, if you picture a chart, that means upper-income families spending more, lower-income families tightening their belts.

Yeah. And so now some signs are suggesting that maybe the legs of that K-shape are starting to curve into more like a C-shape, like the letter C, where folks toward the top of the income range are maybe starting to spend less while the lower-income folks start spending more, you know, curving more toward each other. So far, Bank of America called out restaurants as one spot where spending is growing faster among lower-income folks than higher income.

And we're going to keep a close eye on these spending patterns in the months to come because, you know, consumer spending is such a big driver of the overall U.S. economy. If people were to really tighten their belts, it could put the brakes on economic growth.

All right. So any other big takeaways from this week in economic data?

Well, one takeaway is that families are not the only ones relying heavily on borrowed money. Congressional forecasters said this week they expect the federal government will run a deficit of more than $2 trillion this year. That's pushing the government's overall debt close to the —$40 trillion mark. And just the interest on all that debt is now the government's second-biggest expense, trailing only Social Security. And the investors who lend money to the government by buying bonds, they are demanding higher interest rates now, some of the highest rates in decades. And that in turn affects the interest rate that private borrowers have to pay for things like home mortgages. Mortgage rates have climbed to about 6.7%, and we know that's been a real drag on the housing market.

So everyone living beyond their means. That's NPR's Scott Horsley and Alina Salyuk. Thank you both.

Thank you. You're welcome.

The USS George Washington is heading toward the Middle East. Another aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, is currently in the region, part of the blockade of Iran. It has been deployed for almost 9 months now.

Secretary of Defense Pete Haag says the U.S. can maintain the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely by simply swapping out aircraft carriers. Unusually long deployments are tough on crews and on their families, and it turns out, on the ships themselves. Conditions on board have been deteriorating as the months have dragged on.

NPR's Tom Bowman covers the Pentagon, and he joins us now. Hey, Tom. Hey, Ada. Tom, what have you been hearing about what's been going on with the USS Lincoln?

Well, there's a lot of concern, Ada, over conditions. It's been out to sea for more than 250 days with 5,000 sailors on board. And with logistics hubs under the threat in the Gulf because of the war, critical supplies are hampered reaching sailors, everything from, you know, fresh food to mail to care packages. And, Ada, this isn't the first time. NPR first broke the story on sanitation problems on the USS Ford, another carrier. Get this, a number of toilets were out of commission. Not what you want to hear when you're aboard a ship. And MSNOW and others have been reporting that sailors have attempted to jump from the carrier, Lincoln, which NPR has not independently confirmed. No matter what, both Hegseth and Navy officials deny those reports. And here's the other thing. I'm hearing similar concerns about lack of food, soap, clean water on the USS Boxer, which is also in the region. So again, a lot of concerns from sailors, from their families about these conditions.

I mean, all of this seems like really basic challenges for the U.S. and the world's most powerful military. It's in huge contrast with what we've been seeing with the incredibly innovative use of battlefield tech, like the drones that Ukraine uses against Russia. What does this tell you?

Well, you know, what the Pentagon is saying is the delays are due to resupply issues. It could be operational demand, supply chain concerns. And then also in a war, fuel and munitions take precedent over, let's say, packages from home or some of these other issues. They say, you know, there is food aboard. It's not maybe the best food, maybe, you know, energy bars or corn dogs rather than a decent hot meal. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said these concerns are misrepresented. But Navy Secretary Huncao had a pretty stormy meeting with families of the Lincoln sailors. There were like 200 people in this room in San Diego. So they're getting an earful, really, from family members now, as well as sailors.

We're now in the 6th month of this conflict with Iran. It hasn't involved boots on the ground, But the changing goals of the war evoke Iraq and the 20 years in Afghanistan, the forever wars, don't they?

Well, in some ways, the Iran War is even worse because in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, or even Vietnam, you could walk out of those countries, just leave, and there'd be no economic implications. That's not the case here with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, Iran still has a great deal of control over that. Before the war, there was 130, 140 ships going through the strait. Now, ater, it's down to fewer than a dozen. They have to deal with that problem. And analysts I talk with said, at some point, you're going to have to give a carrot of some kind to Iran for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now, that could be allowing them to, let's say, charge service fees of some kind for ships going through. It could be unfreezing some of their billions of dollars and giving it to Iran, but that has to be dealt with. And one last thing I would like to mention. I've talked to admirals and generals over the past, over the last number of weeks, and they say, "Tom, we've been studying the Strait of Hormuz for 40 years. If there's a war with Iran, that's the first thing they're going to do—close the strait." But apparently, the administration didn't listen to military leaders and others who have been looking at this as a critical point.

That's NPR's Tom Bowman. Tom, thank you for your reporting.

You're welcome.

We're in the thick of primary season and the midterms are just around the corner.

And that means polls. Lots of them. Who's up? Who's down? Just how close is that all-important race? It's the job of pollsters to give us a sense of where we may be heading. But should we necessarily be surprised when a result isn't as forecast?

Joining us to discuss the inexact science of polling is G. Eliot Morris. He's the journalist and statistician behind the news website Strength in Numbers. Thanks for being here.

Oh, I'm happy to be here.

Thanks, Danielle. Now, one race that got a lot of attention last week involved Francesca Hwang. She was the Democratic Socialist running in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor. She had a double-digit lead in polls and then ended up losing. So how did the polls get that race so wrong?

Well, the first thing I'll say is that primary polls in general are, like, pretty bad. On average, going back to 2014, my colleague Mary Radcliffe and I have done the math, a primary poll is off on average by about 13%age points. So you should, like, expect them to be wrong. In this particular case, the wrongness of the poll seems to come down to two factors. First, there was a lot of late movement in this race. One survey I helped conduct, which measured preferences among the same people in July and in August, found about 10%age points of movement in the past couple of weeks of the race. So that would have accounted for a late shift in the polls. But another problem is Wisconsin in general. In Wisconsin, pollsters don't have good data on the breakdown of voters by age, by education, or by race. So they're sort of left guessing what that composition of voters is going to be. And that can drive some big misses.

Right. And that race also had candidates in, candidates out. I'm sure that contributed as well.

Yeah, there was a couple of dropouts and those voters aren't just going to disappear. They're going to go to a new candidate. In this case, the moderate Democratic candidate, David Crowley, seems to have basically won almost all of the votes from these dropout candidates who did drop out in the final week of the race. But we only had one survey in the last week of the race to pick up on that movement. So that's going to leave the polling average that everyone likes to look at a bit outdated. Mm-hmm.

Now, to zoom way out here, in the media, there's been a lot of coverage of the rise of progressive Democratic candidates What can you tell me about those candidates' chances today compared with, say, a decade ago?

Well, the Democratic Party has definitely moved left. And so you're seeing more progressive or in some cases, Democratic Socialist candidates winning key races such as these congressional races in New York or in Colorado. But, you know, they actually lose some very key races like this one in Wisconsin. So, you know, it looks like the Democratic Party having moved left is now more likely to nominate these progressive candidates. But they're not a lock on the party yet.

Right. Now, as these midterms approach, we're all going to be bombarded by polls. What advice do you have for listeners about how to think about polls as the midterms approach?

Well, polls, the pollsters say, are only snapshots in time. So a good reminder for you as we have these remaining primaries, you know, some states have primaries as late as late September, so they will keep going for a while. Those polls and those primaries can be off by quite a bit, so you shouldn't be surprised if late movement in a race causes those early polls to err by 10, 15 points. The bigger thing that we care about with polls is what they tell us about public opinion for the public at large, whether or not the people are getting what they want out of Congress, whether or not their leaders are focusing on the right problems, they have the right priorities. And for the most part, these primary poll misses don't seem to be feeding into any errors that we can see in systematic ways. For these more important questions of democracy and democratic accountability. So that is the good news. Mm-hmm.

Now, in recent years, polling has gotten a reputation, not always earned, for getting some big calls wrong. I'm curious, what do you think are the real-world consequences, either for politicians or voters, when the polls aren't as accurate as people expect them to be?

Well, I think it's more of an argument for decreasing our expectations for the polls. The average poll is about 3%age points off. Off, even if you're aggregating a bunch of surveys together. This is what we call non-sampling error. It's just error that can enter the poll from not knowing what share of the electorate has, you know, certain demographic characteristics, is old or young or Black or white, etc. And pollsters have to guess about those things. Instead of hand-waving away those errors, we should just mentally adjust our expectations, I argue, for the next election. And don't be surprised if the polls are off by by 1 or 2%age points on average. But like I say, that shouldn't change how we use them for the broader purpose of democratic accountability and giving a voice to the people. Just don't expect so much precision around election time.

That's G. Eliot Morris from the news website Strength in Numbers. Thank you so much for being here. Thank you. That's Up First for Saturday, August 15th, 2026.

I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. And I'm Aitor Peralta. Michael Radcliffe produced this podcast along with Ryan Benk and Danny Hensel. Our editor is Diana Douglas. She worked with Andrew Sussman, Raphael Nam, and Martin Patience.

In the control room are our director, Alaina Tuareg, and our technical director, David Greenberg. Our engineering team includes Simon Laszlo Jansen, Zoe van Genhoven, and Ted Mebane.

Our senior supervising editor is Shannon Rhoades. Our executive producer is Evie Stone, and our deputy Managing editor is Katherine Laidlaw. An NPR trifecta.

Tomorrow on The Sunday Story, scientists in Britain have been trying a grand experiment to bring back beavers, once hunted to extinction. The new British beavers are both beloved and hated, and they're making their mark on the country.

Who could possibly hate beavers? Thanks for listening and for supporting your local NPR station. And if you need to find yours, go to stations.npr.org. I guess you can hate beavers, right? Eh.

They can be destructive. When life gives you lemons, what do you get?

Negative utility. What do you think this is, Darian?

See it together from Planet Money, the home of economic nerdiness.

We revel in it.

Well, you can not only listen to our show, but you can read us us in our weekly newsletter that comes out every Friday morning. Sign up now at npr.org/indicatornewsletter. Oh, hey there. I'm Brittany Luce, and I don't know, maybe this is a little out of pocket to say, but I think you should listen to my podcast. It's called It's Been a Minute, and I love it, and I think you will too. Over the past couple months, over 100,000 new listeners started tuning in. Find out why. Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast from NPR today.