Transcript of Middle East War Negotiations, War And The Global Economy, New Swalwell Allegations New

President Trump says another round of talks with Iran could happen in the next few days.

And Israel and Lebanon agree to start peace negotiations, but with Hezbollah refusing to disarm, will Israel agree to a ceasefire?

I'm Michelle Martin. That's A. Martinez. And this is Up First from NPR News. The Iran war is pushing up prices on everything from gas to groceries, and it's not just Americans feeling it. Fuel protests are spreading across Europe, and Britain's prime minister says he is fed up. The International Monetary The International Monetary Fund is warning of a global recession.

And a second woman has now accused Congressman Eric Swalwell of rape. Swalwell resigned from Congress and faces potential criminal investigations in 3 cities. Stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your day. President Trump says U.S. talks with Iran could resume in the next 2 days.

At the same time, the U.S. has tightened its pressure on Iran by blocking Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. And there are other negotiations happening with other Mideast wars. Historic talks between Israel and Lebanon and negotiations with Hamas.

NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Tel Aviv. All right, Daniel, let's do the numbers here. 3 Mideast wars, 3 negotiations. Let's start with Iran. What are the chances of new talks there?

President Trump told the New York Post that talks could be happening over the next 2 days in Pakistan. We will have to see about that. The top Pakistani mediators are actually scheduled to be traveling abroad for the next several days. But U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says it is his indication that it's highly probable the talks will restart. At the very same time, eh, the US military has announced it has completed its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. The US says about 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade at sea, and now that's blocked. So the question is, is whether this economic pressure on Iran can break the impasse between the US and Iran in the talks. The hourglass is slowly running out here. We are one week into the two-week ceasefire, and the chances of any resolution are complicated by the fact that Iran wants any deal to include an end to the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah.

Yeah, absolutely. And there were historic talks yesterday between Israel and Lebanon. Tell us about those.

These were the first direct diplomatic talks of that kind since 1993. These are two countries with a long history of war, so it It really was something to see the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors literally standing shoulder to shoulder next to each other. But besides a photo op, these are just very preliminary talks. These are not even negotiations yet, and it's very high stakes. I mean, even during the talks yesterday, Hezbollah and Israel continued their fighting. And in Lebanon, more than 2,000 people have been killed in Israel's offensive, according to Lebanon. Now, Israel says most of the people killed are Hezbollah operatives. The Lebanese government says the dead include over 168 children, and more than a million people have been displaced from their homes in Lebanon. So Lebanon is asking here for a ceasefire, and Israel says it won't agree to that until Hezbollah disarms. Hezbollah is not willing to disarm, and in the meantime, Israel is expanding its military occupation of southern Lebanon. What is happening here is that Israel is under pressure to advance as much as it can in Lebanon in case Trump pressures Israel to accept a ceasefire.

Now, we've talked about Iran and Lebanon. There is the first war that led to all of the other Mideast wars, Gaza. So Daniel, tell us about that.

Yeah, behind the scenes, there have been high-level negotiations going on with Hamas in Cairo. President Trump's Board of Peace presented Hamas with a proposal to lay down its weapons, but a Hamas spokesman has told us that they won't enter talks on laying down their weapons until Israel upholds the first part of the ceasefire deal, like increasing aid to Gaza, like allowing more Palestinians to come and go from Gaza. And Hamas is also waiting to see the outcome of the Iran negotiations. So, hey, you see here how 3 separate negotiations over 3 separate wars actually are all influencing each other.

NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Daniel, thanks. You're welcome. The US and Israeli war on Iran is paused as part of a shaky ceasefire, but the conflict and the blockade of fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is putting a strain on global markets.

The International Monetary Fund says the global economy The global economy is now at risk of recession, and it has singled out the United Kingdom as being hit the hardest.

That's where we find NPR's Fatima Alkassab in London. So what does the IMF say about the results of this war and the reaction in Britain?

Yes, so the IMF issued a stark forecast for the global economy yesterday, and it's not looking good. It's especially not looking good for the UK because it imports so much of its gas and oil. Here in the UK, households will already be $500 worse off this year due to the war. That's according to a leading think tank, the Foundation. Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves called the US and Israel's war in Iran a folly. She was speaking to the Mirror newspaper in what is the strongest criticism from a British government minister of Trump's war yet. I feel very frustrated and angry that the US went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant acknowledged yesterday that US allies were going to suffer some economic pain, but he said it was worth it to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. He told the BBC, quote, I wonder what the hit to global GDP would be if a nuclear weapon hit London.

Wow. Now, governments around the world are really scrambling to try and ease the impact. And you've been reporting on Ireland. Tell us about the steps that the government has taken there.

Yeah, that's right. In Ireland, the government announced more than $500 million in tax cuts on motor fuel. That came after a week of protests over high fuel prices, which brought many parts of the country to a standstill. Yesterday, the Irish government survived a no-confidence vote, which was brought over their handling of the crisis. But it's just an example of the political pressure on governments around Europe. These fuel protests have been going on in the Republic of Ireland for days. They're now spreading north of the border to Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, where farmers have been holding tractor protests. So it really does look like they are catching on.

Okay. Now, what about the rest of Europe?

Yeah, in Norway, truck drivers descended on the capital and took part in a diesel roar protest. Germany's government has cut fuel tax in a package worth more than $1 billion. That's to help people with the rising costs. I spoke to Vicki Price. She's an economist who advised the British government during the 2008 financial crash. She says the fuel protests in Ireland are a sign of what's to come elsewhere.

If the governments don't respond, if the situation continues as it is, that is likely therefore to lead to farmers and others protesting again.

She also said the impact is being felt most in low and middle-income countries. A national emergency has been called in the Philippines due to a lack of energy supply. There are shortages of cooking gas in India. Farmers in South Asia are dealing with a lack of fertilizer. And there are warnings that this could all lead to a global food crisis.

Let's say the Strait of Hormuz reopens today and the US-Iran ceasefire holds. Will all of this turmoil just go away?

Well, some analysts are saying, you know, even if peace is declared tomorrow, there's already been such a shock that's been embedded in the system that it may take weeks or months to overcome. Now, there's a lot of uncertainty here. The IMF came up with varying scenarios and different outcomes for the global economy. Based on how long this war goes on, but they say that for now the global economy is threatened with being thrown off course.

That's NPR's Fatima Al-Qassab in London. Thank you very much.

Thanks, eh.

Democrat Eric Swalwell formally resigned from Congress on Tuesday as a second woman accused him of rape.

Swalwell had already suspended his campaign for California governor over the weekend following reports that he sexually assaulted a former staff member and harassed several other women. Swalwell is denying all of the allegations.

Marisa Lagos is a political correspondent at member station KQED in San Francisco, joins us now with more details, and we'll note that her reporting includes descriptions of sexual violence. So Marisa, this story has been developing since last week. On Tuesday though, a woman in Los Angeles, she leveled perhaps the most serious allegations yet. What did she have to say?

Yeah, Lana Drews appeared at a news conference with her lawyers and said she believes she was drugged and raped by Swalwell in a Hollywood hotel room back in 2018. She says she is reporting that alleged assault now to law enforcement. Drew says the two met socially, saw each other on three separate occasions. At the time, she was a model, she owned a fashion software company, and she was considering a run for the local city council. She says she was looking for Swalwell's help with professional connections, and she alleges that on the last time she saw Swalwell, they met up, she had one glass of wine. She says they went to his hotel room so he could pick something up that he needed, and she says she became so incapacitated she couldn't move.

He raped me and he choked me, and while he was choking me, I lost consciousness and I thought I died.

So Drew said she didn't report the alleged assault at the time because she was scared to.

What has Eric Swalwell said?

He's been pretty defiant. He issued a statement through an attorney. The lawyer posted on social media. It says that Swalwell categorically and unequivocally denies each and every allegation of sexual misconduct and assault. It calls them a calculated and transparent political hit job. Later Tuesday, the lawyer went on NewsNation and said, quote, "Regret is not rape." We should note, A, NPR has not independently verified any of the allegations against Swalwell, right?

Yeah, this though isn't the only allegation. What else has Swalwell been accused of?

Well, an unnamed former staff member who worked in his congressional office and on his short-lived 2019 presidential campaign told both the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN that he sexually assaulted her twice— once in 2019, once in 2024. She says both times she was too intoxicated to consent. And then CNN actually also reported other allegations from 3 women who accuse him of unwanted sexual advances and sending nude photos, things like that.

Last week, Eric Swalwell was a contender for California governor. That obviously is not happening. But what about his seat in the House of Representatives? What happens with that now?

Well, right, his political career is clearly over. He's out of Congress. He ended his campaign for governor Sunday. And I should note, there's now potential criminal investigations in New York City, Los Angeles, and the Bay Area. We'll obviously be watching to see whether those go anywhere. Um, in terms of a race to succeed him in Congress, Governor Gavin Newsom here in California announced there will be a special election to fill that seat on August 18th.

All right, that's Marisa Lagos, political correspondent and member station KQED in San Francisco and co-host of The Political Breakdown podcast. Marisa, thanks a lot.

Thanks, eh.

Later today on our sister show NPR's Newsmakers, our guest is comedian Dave Chappelle. He's got a new title: the landlord of his local NPR station. He says he wants to support honest journalism, so we asked him to be honest about why he performed in a country that jails and even kills its critics. I can make a million excuses or reasons to deprive that crowd of that show, but man, when I was standing in front of them, I feel like I did the right thing. More with Dave Chappelle later today on NPR's Newsmakers, which you can watch on NPR's YouTube channel. We'll also share that conversation as a bonus episode right here in Up First feed around 1:00 PM Eastern time. Grab it for your commute home or your evening routine.

And that's Up First for Wednesday, April 15th. I'm Emilio Martinez.

And I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ruth Shulok, Tina Krya, Padma Rama, Mohammed Elbardisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Eva Plukach. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes. Our technical director is Carly Strange, and our supervising Supervising producer is Reena Advani. Join us again tomorrow.