Transcript of How Smaller Families are Changing the World

I'm Ayesha Rosco, and this is a Sunday story from Up First, where we go beyond the news of the day to bring you one big story. You may have caught wind of this already, but families aren't having as many kids as they used to, not just here in the US, but around the world. In fact, researchers say the average woman is having half as many children now than they did in the 1970s. Ashley Yvancho is a mom in upstate New York who decided one child is enough for her family.

I don't need another one. I don't want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.

Why are so many families making this choice? And what exactly does it mean for our future? Npr has launched a new reporting series called Population Shift: How Smaller Families are Changing the World. We're bringing you the stories of families that are making untraditional choices, communities that are growing faster than they're growing, and schools whose classes are getting smaller and smaller every year. You can find all their reporting at npr. Org/ population shift. When we come back, we'll get some insight from the team that's taking the lead on this series, NPR Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann.

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Hey, thanks for having us.

How did you first encounter this story? What made you want to do some deep reporting on it?

Ayesha, I woke up to this slowly. I lived in small towns most of my life, and I've seen them dwindling the population is getting older. I started to realize this wasn't just happening in rural America. It's happening everywhere. Nationwide, American women had between three and four kids, typically in the 1960s when I was born. Now, it's an average of one to two kids, and that's not enough to maintain a stable population. We started asking questions about this, why this is happening and what it might mean. Let me just introduce you to one voice. This is Jeremy Evans. He works on economic development in tiny little Franklin County in upstate New York. He says now population is his biggest worry.

Our population will continue to decline.

More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people.

What's amazing, Ayes, is that this is happening all over the country. Half the counties in the US now, older people outnumber kids.

I've also covered rural decline. I started my career in public radio in Nebraska and Iowa, and so I've seen some of these trends. I covered conservative politics and the abortion debate for a long time. So when Brian came to me looking at some of this data he'd been digging into, I was absolutely fascinated, both from the standpoint of how communities are changing and the choices that people are making. It feels like a really seismic shift in the way that people live, and I wanted to understand it better. And I'll just share a personal story. I remember back when I was pregnant with my second child, who's now in high school, I was attending a conference for environmental journalists, and I went to this session that was talking about the impact of overpopulation on the planet. I raised my hand, visibly pregnant, and I asked, based on the research, what's an ideal number of kids for people to be having in this world? Everyone seemed uncomfortable with the question. Nobody would really give me a clear answer. But I've just been fascinated with these really personal and fraught and intimate questions ever since because they also have a really big impact on the way we live and on the way that it economy's work.

Yeah, and this curiosity about the data, but also about what we've been seeing in our personal lives, got us started on this journey, which led to NPR and our member stations sending reporters all over the world to sub-Saharan Africa, to East Asia, Europe, all across the US to look at why families are getting smaller, what it means, and how we may have to adapt.

I want to clear up some of the language before we dive into the specifics. What exactly do we mean when we talk about a declining birth rate?

Yeah. A really basic measure that scientists use looking at this is a thing called total fertility rate. That's a technical term. That's the estimate of how many children the average woman in a country or on the planet will have in their lifetimes. It used to be really high. Just a few decades ago, the average globally was five children per woman. Now globally, it's dropped to 2. 2, right? That's really low comparatively. And in the United States, in many countries, it's dropped even lower, down below what people call the replacement rate. That means we're having too few children to maintain a stable population. And so slowly, that all adds up to populations aging and eventually declining.

I'm a single mother of three, and I'm blessed to be able to take care of them, but they cost a lot of But I love them. They're great. But there are people out there who just wouldn't be able to financially afford it, right? How much of this decline that we're seeing in birth rates just boils down to people feeling like, I cannot afford to have kids or to have more than one or two.

Yeah, money is definitely a big part of this. We hear this over and over from women. It's It's hard to raise kids. Young families say the same things. But what's really fascinating is that it's happening even in places where standards of living are really high and the income are really high, and there's a lot of support for families. Really, the fascinating piece here is that for sure money is a part of it, but there also seems to be some a cultural shift. It's really profound. I want to introduce another voice. This is Martina Yopo-Diaz, who's a sociologist at Santiago's Catholic University.

All key social systems, from the economy to the labor market, to pensions, to care, are based on the principle that there would be new generations to replace the old ones. But now we see that that principle is no longer something that we can take as given.

We wanted to really get a sense of what this looks like on the ground. I went to a place where the impact of fewer babies being born is felt especially intensely. In Greece, the population is aging and it's also shrinking as younger people move away and those who stay have fewer kids. I went to a couple of small islands where there are fewer and fewer children. I met a girl named Georgia Grammarikou. She's 16, and she lives on this tiny island in the Eastern Aegean Sea. She said she doesn't really see a future for herself there.

.. It's very nice here and it's peaceful. But I don't see myself living here in the future because there aren't many opportunities.

Little by little, the small shops are closing down. There are fewer and fewer people. This is a concern for the Greek government and also for local officials.

Can you tell me more about how these declining birth rates are impacting local and national economies?

Well, the big worry that I hear is that you get into this vicious spiral where schools close down, people move away, businesses close, and it just gets worse and worse over time. You get young people leaving having fewer kids, and it's harder to find workers, and eventually, there's just nothing left. The Greek government is so worried about it that they just recently rolled out a package of tax incentives worth several billion dollars designed to encourage younger Greeks to have children. I recently spoke with the Greek finance minister, Kyriako Spira-Kakis.

This is an existential problem for us. It's an existential challenge for us. We need to create the positive tailwinds to counter the negative headwinds of the effects of our demographic curve.

You told me they're focusing, especially with some of these tax incentives on rural areas and islands.

I think what's really important here, Ayesh, is that what's happening in Greece is happening all over the world. This is across Europe, it's across East Asia, it's in South America, and even here in North America. We're going to be seeing schools closing, aging populations in more and more parts of the planet.

Kids are expensive. After the break, Sarah and Brian dig into another big reason people aren't having as many kids. This message comes from Heavyweight. Maybe you've laid awake and imagined how it could have been, how it might be, but the moment to act was never right. Well, the moment is here, and the podcast Making It Happen is Heavyweight with Jonathan Goldstein. Available wherever you get podcasts. This message comes from Revisionist History. On Revisionist History: The Alabama Murders, the seven-episode series looks at the case of Kenny Smith, which led to the center of the debate on capital punishment. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. This message comes from the Dateland original podcast, Deadly Engagement. Join Josh Mankowits as he tells a twisted story of sex, lies, and betrayal that will keep you guessing until the very end. Search Deadly Engagement to follow now. This week on Consider This, unpacking some wild economic trends. Families are having fewer kids, how that will ripple in the global economy, plus the rise of private credit markets and the hidden risk they pose. And we're breaking down the rise in health care costs tied to the government shutdown. Listen every afternoon to Consider This on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

A lot of young people are struggling to find partners right now, and some older people, too. There's really this epidemic of loneliness in many countries. I would imagine that that's affecting decisions about parenting.

Right. Like Brian mentioned, it's not just about money. Some of the wealthiest countries in the world are seeing some of the biggest declines. I went to Finland as well because that's a country that's known for its generous family leave. There's paid time off for both mothers and fathers, heavily subsidized childcare, free healthcare, and so on. And yet Finland has seen its birth rate dropped by about a third since 2010. And I wanted to know why. I talked to Anna Rothkirt. She's a researcher at the Family Federation of Finland, and she prepared a report for the Finnish government looking at all of this. She says there are a lot of factors in play. It's definitely Definitely not just one. But one of the issues she sees is that younger people are having a harder time forming stable relationships that lead to families, even if that's what they say they want. We see in Finland that the overwhelming majority also of today's young adults would like to have a steady, committed partnership. We go to schools, we talk to 17-year-olds, and we are like, What would be your ideal family if you want a family at all?

I want a small house with a dog a garden and a spouse and three children.

It really breaks my heart because I'm like, That's not going to happen if the world goes on like it's now. But this is what they say they want. For us, that's the starting point. This is something I heard, at least anecdotally, from people I met in Finland Especially women, the idea that finding a suitable stable partner is difficult, sometimes even for those who'd like to have children. Larissa Rudolfson is 48 and a single mom by choice. She was married until her 30s, and she did not have children with her ex-husband, but later decided she wanted to become a mother and had two children in her 40s with the help of assisted reproductive technology. Here's what she says about the women she meets in similar situations. I think as women get more educated, and we are getting further and further from the traditional model that the man earns and the woman takes care of the Family and home, women also realize that they can earn, and why put up with something that they don't want to put up with? She said she'd like to have a suitable partner, but she hasn't found that person. She says women have many more options today than they once did, and they are exercising those options.

A lot of the talk around this issue, at least here in the US, does focus on the changing expectation and roles of women in society, and My brother and I are always talking about this. And he says it's just facts. It's not his opinion, he says, that women are putting their careers ahead of families. But he's not saying that's a bad thing. He's just saying that's a fact. But I do feel like that puts a lot of the blame on women. And it takes two to tango. What are you hearing from the people that you're meeting?

I think that's That's a really important point, Ayesha. The reality is that the world has changed, and women do, as we said, have more choices now. That's both in terms of educational and career opportunities, also access to contraception. That's a relatively new thing in terms of human history. Those two things have come together and meant that the landscape of options for women is really different. Also, one thing I've heard from researchers is that for women to have more children, which often means taking more time out the workforce, slowing down their careers. The data suggests that women still do a disproportionate share of domestic labor, that comes at an economic cost now that hits the entire family. It really has changed the calculus. I talked to an economic demographer in Greece named Alexandra Tragaki, and here's what she said about the way that women are making decisions. Women changed, but nothing else did. Women changed roles, but no one else did. Neither the society nor men So part of the roles that used to be covered by women were left uncovered. When that happens, obviously, it's the size of the family that is affected. She acknowledged that younger generations are starting to adapt to some extent, that gender roles are shifting in response to these economic realities and social changes.

But still, many women feel they just don't have the capacity to manage larger families alongside everything else that women do today.

I think, Asia, one of the things I'm hearing from a lot of the women and men who I'm talking to, the fathers or the people considering fatherhood, is they don't accept this idea of being blamed for smaller families. They're pretty angry about it in many cases. They want to be left alone to make smart, private, personal decisions. They're happy about their lives in many cases. It feels good to them. I think all around the world, there are these efforts to boost birth rates and to convince families to have more kids. What I'm hearing from a lot of people is, Leave us alone. We got this. We're doing what feels right to us and to our families. So that narrative that women who have fewer kids are doing something wrong, that's not a popular view among most of the families I've been talking to.

One of the things we've heard is that both younger men and women, they just imagine their lives differently. Having kids is not assumed the way that maybe it once was for a lot of people. And younger generations do understand that there's a new dynamic in play when it comes to gender roles. In Finland, I talked to Anselmi Oramo. He's a 28-year-old student in Helsinki. He's engaged to be married and wants children eventually once he's more financially secure. But he said it's important to him that they be in a place financially where they can afford household help, for instance, so that they can both have their careers and time with their children.

Because I don't I don't want my partner to drop her life for our children in order to me to basically be the provider or whatever. I don't want that. I think that everybody can have their own relationship and have the roles that they want in their own relationships.

That's not my business.

But I don't want to push my partner or basically leave myself the traditional model into action.

But he said he's still figuring out how to navigate that, and he's not exactly sure how that will for his future family.

Well, how is the current administration talking about this issue in the US? What are they proposing should be done about it?

Well, this question of whether or not Americans are having enough children has become a major theme on the political right, as you know. Vice President Vance has said he wants more babies to be born in America. Alabama Senator Katie Brett has described the Republican Party as the party of Parents. Several months ago, you may remember President Trump himself promised to be the fertilization President, and he said during the campaign last year that he would expand access to fertility treatments like IVF. Now, in terms of actual policy, the administration has taken fairly modest action so far. That massive spending bill that was passed over the summer did include an expanded child tax credit and a temporary program to give $1,000 investment accounts to babies born while Trump is in office. He also recently announced a deal to lower the costs of some IVF drugs. But Ayesha, critics say that none of these measures really do much in the scheme of things to help families, given just the huge costs involved in raising a child.

One thing you think about is, is this really a problem? Is this something I should be worried about? Okay, well, eventually, maybe nothing will be left, but maybe that's what the Lord intended.

Yeah, it's really a great question. But here's what I think I've learned over the months and months we've been reporting on this. This is huge, right? This is a big population shift. China is going to lose 200 million workers very quickly. Italy is getting so old, so fast, the country is scambling to maintain its pension system. Even here in the US, there are questions about how we're going to pay for things like Social Security and Medicare as we get older. So it's a lot. And what's really interesting is that Lant Pritchett, an economist at the London School of Economics, says there's so much population change happening so fast, it's not clear how it's all going to work. Hard to tell what's going to happen when things that have never happened before happen. We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully. So not so much a problem, Ayesha, but a dramatic change in the way we humans are living. For a lot of women and couples, it's a really positive change. They're living free or more prosperous lives. But it also means for the economy and a lot of social systems, like how we care for the elderly, we're going to have to adapt and make some big changes.

Some of the researchers I talk to believe that there is a gap between the number of children people say they want and the number that they actually have. They're not having as many kids as they might want. To the extent that's true, researchers across the ideological spectrum tell me if there are policies that can help people get from where they want to be to where they are, if that means having another child, they see those kinds of policy ideas as a good thing.

Looking forward, on a practical level, what are we actually seeing governments or communities do to prepare for or adapt to these changes?

Well, governments are concerned about this, and they're trying a number of different things. We mentioned Greece has put through some tax incentives to encourage families to have more kids if they want them. Finland's government recently wrapped up a committee looking at this issue and suggested a bunch of possible solutions. There are also some private sector efforts in places like Greece to spur economic development in smaller communities and help young parents pay for things like medical care. But the reality is that a lot of our research suggests it's really hard to address this through policy. One thing I'll be curious about is whether or not any of these efforts actually result in a significant increase in birth rates.

Yeah. I think the other piece that's really going to be interesting, while there are these efforts to have families stabilize or maybe even grow a little bit, there's a question about how countries can prepare themselves for an aging and eventually dwindling population. It may mean more use of AI, more automation in factories. It may mean we have to extend retirement age a little bit. What the economists and other researchers I've been talking to say is that this family shift is pretty deeply rooted, and the rest of us are going to to start adapting what the rest of the economy and society look like, and we're just still taking baby steps toward that now.

Well, it sounds like another huge problem that we're all going to have to face at some point. It's a profoundly personal issue, but it's one that has huge implications for the rest of the world. I just thank you both for looking into it.

Absolutely. Thanks, Saesha.

Thanks for the great conversation.

That's NPR correspondence, Brian Mann and Sara McCammon. And for more of their reporting, go to our website at npr. Org/populationshift. The series is called Population Shift: How Smaller Families are Changing the World. This episode was produced by Michelle Aslum and edited by Lianna Simstrom and Irene Naguchi. Special thanks to Andrea Deleon and Megan Pratz. Mastering by Cole Takasugi Chernevan. The Sunday Story team includes Andrew Mambo, Justine Yann, and Jennie Schmidt. Thomas Coltrane is our intern. I'm Ayesha Rosco. Up First is back tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Up First sponsor-free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get Up First Plus at plus. Npr.

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