Transcript of NBA Free Agency Primer: The Main Characters of the Offseason!

The Zach Lowe Show
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00:00:59

Coming up on the Zach Lowe Show, NBA free agency officially kicks off in about 35 hours or something like that. Michael Pina from the ringer.com is here to get into all of the biggest stories. Who are the main characters of NBA free agency slash the transaction period that is really already underway? Kawhi Leonard, will he be traded by the time this podcast drops? Jaylen Brown, what about him? LeBron James, Huh. What team's he gonna be on? Related, what are the Warriors gonna do? The Nuggets, the Pistons. We get into just the very broad strokes, main characters, and some news that's already happened with the Knicks, the Thunder, James Harden, Fred VanVleet, all of that stuff. And a bit on the Charlotte Hornets making two big trades. We did Lamelo last week. Over the weekend it was Miles Bridges to Phoenix with some stuff coming back to Charlotte, including a juicy Phoenix 2033. Unprotected pick. We get into all that, quick setup for free agency with Michael Peena. That's all coming up on this edition of the Zach Lowe Show. Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show. It's Monday morning. NBA free agency starts in like 35 hours.

00:02:14

It's been going on for a while. Trades are happening, signings are happening, rumors are swirling. Michael Peena, how are you doing, sir?

00:02:21

I'm doing great, Zach. How are you, man?

00:02:23

I'm good. I'm ready. I've been ready. I've really never stopped being ready. Things just keep happening. And from Giannis until now, it's been a whirlwind. We're gonna get into the main characters of the next week in the NBA, and it's gonna be a week. It's gonna be fast and furious like it always is. Before we get to that, some news that I don't think is all that surprising, but if I want to hear if you have any takes on any of these things, okay? We have Isaiah Hartenstein, 3 years, $75 million with the Thunder, thereabouts, a slight pay cut on his annual salary for some security. Like that deal. It's a good deal. I think it's indicative that yes, he is essential to our attack against Victor Wembanyama and the young guys that we have may not be ready yet. The Knicks resigned Diawara, 3 years, $15 million, and Jose Alvarado about the same. I like both. It brings into question Mitchell Robinson and Landry Shamet as the Knicks are perilously close to the second apron. And both of those guys, particularly Mitchell Robinson, have a lot of interest around the league. And just this morning, Fred VanVleet opts in to $25 million, now an expiring contract with the Houston Rockets after a lost season last season when the Rockets really missed him.

00:03:33

And James Harden, not surprisingly, opts out of his contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. And according to Sham Strania, they are as we all have been saying, discussing a new multi-year deal that I'm going to guess is probably 3 years, 80, 90, 100, something in that range. Is any of that interesting to you or should we just move on?

00:03:56

You know, I think the Knicks situation is interesting just in terms of the deals that they got done were smart. The fact that they are so hamstrung with regards to the second apron, somewhat curiously, is really interesting to me. And we'll see, like you said, with Shamet, with Mitchell Robinson, and if they'll be able to retain one, both, neither, who knows. That's something to keep an eye on for sure. The Hartenstein deal, real quick, I'm glad that he's staying because losing him would be kind of borderline catastrophic for the Oklahoma City Thunder. I think he's so integral to how they play and defeating the San Antonio Spurs next year. He's a huge part of that. So it's good to see him get locked up there.

00:04:36

Yeah, I mean, look, the offseason is not even close to over, but I was asked a bunch of times in the last week or so by NBA people, You know, if you had to pick one team right now to, if when you go to Las Vegas to bet on who's gonna win the championship next year, right now before all the moves, I said, I think I would pick Oklahoma City. I wouldn't feel great about it, but they would be my pick. But obviously there's a lot to be done. I misspoke on Mohamed Diallo. It's 2 years, 10, not 3 years, 15. I think that's a good bet for the Knicks. Alvarado is a no-brainer. Gives them a little Deuce McBride insurance. He's an unrestricted free agent after next season. I like all the things the Knicks have done. I get the hesitancy with the second apron. It really is restrictive. And the, the thing with the Knicks is if they're in it next year, there's really no sign of them ever getting out of it in the near future with this team. As Brunson's deal will— Brunson will sign his new big deal eventually, and other guys are essential.

00:05:29

It's not like you can just ditch Josh Hart or Mikael Bridges or something.

00:05:32

Sure.

00:05:33

And then your pick gets moved down and all that. But you know what? It's a special team. Who knows how much money the Knicks just made? Mitchell Robinson in a, in a Wemba Nyama world is that archetype of player is essential. So let's run it back. I say it's not my money though. Okay. Michael Peener, are you ready? The main characters of the rest of the NBA offseason in no particular order. Are you, are you ready to go?

00:05:57

Let's do it.

00:05:58

Main character number one, and I'm accelerating him to the top of the list. Kawhi Leonard, the centerpiece of one of the most audacious, crippling, risky, whatever mega transactions in NBA history that continues to this day to cost the Clippers in the last draft. And the Aspiration scandal is still ongoing and all of that. Uh, there is interest and there is interest specifically from the Toronto Raptors. These talks are very real. They are real enough. That I would not surprise me at all if Kawhi Leonard is traded to the Raptors like shortly after this podcast is released. It also would not surprise me at all if it takes a couple of days or if it never happens because my read is the Clippers are asked, there, there's a gap between what the Clippers want to move on from Kawhi Leonard and sort of honestly begin a rebuild and what the Toronto Raptors are willing to give up. They're not gonna give up Scottie Barnes. They're not gonna give up Colin Murray-Boyles. They're not gonna give up the Swain. Did know who did they just draft? I can't remember the guy they just drafted in the first round.

00:06:59

They're not giving him up. So, so it's just like, do you want Brandon Ingram plus Grady Dick plus a lightly protected first round pick that conveys now? If so, I think there's a deal. If not, I think there's further negotiations. This is super interesting because I just was never sure the Clippers would reach this point with Kawhi when they would honestly look themselves in the mirror and say, it's time. It's time. They've indicated that they've been very honest about their place in the league. Like they never, I don't think, seriously entertained trading the number 5 pick. They realized what, what a gift this was to them having given up so much to get Kawhi Leonard. What a rare chance to get a blue chip prospect and they get Keaton Wadler. But I still, I just assumed they'll ride it out forever with Kawhi and here we are. What do you think of this? And I think this is very real. I don't think the Dallas rumors are real. That could change, but I, I don't think that's real. I don't know if there's any other team, but Toronto is definitely interested in pairing Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard and really kind of going for it in the East where a lot of teams are kind of going for it.

00:08:12

I, this is an interesting one for a lot of reasons. It, it took me by surprise the fact that the Clippers, you know, Sean's reported that the Clippers made quote, no long-term commitment to him this offseason. So the extension talks are stalled and That's surprising to me a little bit given everything that they've said and hinted at and signaled for months. The thing about this to me, like if I was the Clippers, I don't— this package, Ingram, Dick, a pick, whatever.

00:08:45

I'm just making that up. I'm not sure. Maybe you squeeze a second pick, but I don't think like it's going to be— could it be Barrett instead of Ingram? I'm not sure how much that changes your life if you're the Clippers, even if you maybe prefer Barrett. It's not going to be the any of the blue chip guys and it's not gonna be like 4 firsts and 3 swaps. Like that's not happening, right?

00:09:06

I, I think, well, first of all, if this, if something were like that were to happen and he were to just end up on the Raptors, I'll just say that Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard, and CMB, like that front court, that's my League Pass team. I'm watching every second of the Toronto Raptors next season. But I think like fundamentally for me, if Leonard is truly on the market, the Clippers don't want him, they don't want to extend him. I don't see why another team wouldn't do what Toronto did in 2019 and take a 1-year flyer, with the caveat here that Leonard doesn't have the same amount of leverage that he once did. You know, like, he— in 2019, obviously, that the risk was, um, that he was— everyone knew he was going to go to Los Angeles. Well, that's off the table now. And how many teams would even be willing to give him the extension that, that he covets? So I think that the market should be a little broader. Maybe I'm misreading something here, but I feel like even though he has— I've seen the Raptors, I've seen the Spurs as another team that he would reportedly be interested in signing an extension with.

00:10:13

I just think like the market there should be a little, a little wider and more teams should be interested in getting Leonard if they want the 1-year flyer and then kind of we'll see what happens.

00:10:24

Give me a team.

00:10:26

Well, I know we're gonna talk about this later, so I don't wanna step on it too much, but the Boston Celtics.

00:10:32

Your problem for my problem.

00:10:34

Yeah. I mean, if the Celtics, we, we're, I know we're gonna talk about this a little bit, but if the Celtics are gung-ho about trading Jaylen Brown, I would want a player who would make me a better team on paper or a better player than Jaylen Brown. I think Kawhi Leonard is a better player. I think he would get you closer to a championship in 2000. 17— 2027. So that's interesting to me. And then they could also save some money, or they could get another player in, like Isaiah Jackson or Chris Dunn maybe. So that's like a, an interesting one. But I, I— there's just other teams out there, like the other teams that we're going to probably be talking about in a few minutes. So that's kind of just— what do you think about that? Just like opening up the, the negotiation if you're the Clippers and you're seriously not wanting Kawhi Leonard, which is kind of a groundswell throughout the league, I feel like.

00:11:25

Well, it's interesting because like obviously the idea that he would extend with Toronto reportedly is giving the Raptors some leverage. Yeah. Like to your point, like Kawhi's 35 and has a fairly long and well-documented injury history. I'm not sure I mind depending on the price, just getting him and saying we'll figure it out later. The Celtics, that was on my list of like, so who's gonna trade for Jaylen Brown? Who's another main character. I just think I could see the two teams arguing over who and how much should send draft compensation, right? Who should, who should compensate the other and how much. That one gets a little complicated. His age is a little complicated. Look, there's a ticking clock on this thing with Toronto. Like Toronto's gonna move on to other business just like other teams are gonna move on. Like there will be Jaylen Brown potential trades that fall apart because teams move on to other business. So, you know, we'll see. I mean, the funniest one would be Paul George to the Clippers with one of their first round picks that the Sixers own in exchange for Kawhi Leonard. That would be the funniest one.

00:12:30

And by the way, the Clippers don't control their pick for the next 3 drafts, even though the, the Oklahoma City nightmare trade is over for them. And that factors into it too. And I think they still want to be somewhat relevant, right? They don't want to bottom out even though the relegation zone is not going to affect them since they don't control their pick. So that's why a guy like Ingram, I think that's That's why Toronto would pitch that idea. Look, Kawhi, when healthy last year, was one of the 8 best players in the NBA at worst, probably when healthy, like the last 55 games of the season, he was that good. You put him with Toronto. I've already had a couple people from Eastern Conference contenders text me like, we would really not like that to happen. Like that team gets pretty scary pretty fast. So yeah, I just think it's interesting. We'll see what happens. I don't really buy the Dallas stuff. I don't really buy, I don't really buy the San Antonio one. Either. Like, I don't, I don't really know how that's working and what the price is and all that.

00:13:26

Devin Vassell would have to be involved, I think, or I don't know. That's just, that's too much. I think it's too messy.

00:13:33

It ended worse with San Antonio than it did with Toronto by like orders of magnitude between Kawhi and the team. And I just feel like you just made the finals. Like, I don't, that just feels like a bridge too far. I'm trying to think if there's anything else we need to hit on this. Nope, that's it. Kawhi, like, we'll see. I think there's real legs to this thing in Toronto, but I agree with you. Like, there are a bunch of teams that could talk themselves into it. Like you could build Denver deals, you could do all sorts of things. Mm-hmm.

00:13:59

Okay.

00:14:00

Main character number 2, Jaylen Brown. We're here with Jaylen Brown. Bill and I talked about it a lot last night. I don't know who the Jaylen Brown team is. I am beginning to wonder if the Celtics overthought the Giannis thing and just should have just been like, we've gone this far. We know that it's going to be hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube with Jalen if we keep him. We know it's going to be pretty hard to trade him for a return that our fans find palatable. Maybe Hugo isn't this essential, or Shireman or both isn't this essential, and we should just go all in and rip the Band-Aid off and get it over with. Throw our depth out the window. Like, I'm not sure that's a great answer either. But now they're in this situation where I just don't know who the team is that's, that's like, that they're deep in, in the weeds with on any Jaylen Brown trade. And I said this with Bill last night, I compared it to the Minnesota Timberwolves trading KAT in the sense that I just think given his salary, as great as Jaylen Brown was last season and has been for his entire career, and he will tell you he's won more games in the NBA over the last X amount of years than anyone in the league.

00:15:19

I think they are stuck in a place where their choices are right now, hold onto Jaylen Brown and try to salvage this relationship and figure it out. And it may be too far gone. I don't know. I mean, I'm looking at a tweet this morning that I think everything is fake in AI. I think Kendrick Perkins threatened to fight Jaylen Brown's dad on Twitter. I think that's like a place to where we are right now. Like that's NBA media. Okay. So reconciliation or take a package that is just not going to excite your fans, your talk radio hosts, maybe even your owner. It might be like a smart package that you could be like, oh, okay, we reorganize our finances, we get a couple of young players or a couple picks, but like the headliner or the present day value is going to make your team materially worse. This coming season than having Jaylen Brown would be. I think that's where they're stuck. And I don't really know like what the team even is right now. I don't know, I don't know where they, what, who they're at the 20-yard line or 30-yard line with.

00:16:24

Do you have any thoughts?

00:16:27

My thoughts on this are, I'm, I'm, I texted you this last night. I'm, I'm still surprised that we, we got to this point. Jaylen has 3 years on his contract. Supermax. I just, it's interesting to me that a team that wants to win the championship, that aspires to win it all, like, you don't trade a guy who just finished 6th in MVP, made, was about to make First Team All-NBA, finished with the 6th most votes for First Team All-NBA, was a Finals MVP 2 years ago. He's about to turn 30, but still kind of getting better in a lot of different ways. You don't do that because his— you don't trade him because his feelings are hurt because it was revealed that he was in an offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who's like one of the greatest players in the history of the NBA. And if I'm the Celtics, like, I'm not making a trade unless like I clearly win the trade. Like, I would feel like the Celtics are negotiating from a position of strength. Like, that's the kind of the point of selling high. Like, if I, if I make no trade, if I'm Boston, I keep Jaylen Brown and I come back next season with a roster that won 56 games and had a better offense, defense, and net rating in the regular season than the Knicks, and Jason Tatum only played 16 regular season games.

00:17:48

Like, I feel like that's a pretty good consolation. Um, we have all this data that Tatum and Brown are fantastic together. We have, uh, all this data. I know that The analytics conversation is kind of going way too far in one direction that it's like silly. When Jaylen Brown is on the court, the Celtics are good like every year, like whether Tatum is on the court or not, they're a very good basketball team.

00:18:17

I have some thoughts on analytics gate. Can I just share my thoughts on analytics gate?

00:18:21

Please, please.

00:18:23

So this has reminded me of my biggest pet peeve in NBA media for 25 years. Was when SI, when it was a real publication, like an actual print publication and a real website, used to put out anonymous NBA scouts preview the season. And it was just a column of like anonymous NBA scouts. And a lot of it would be like really mean potshots at players, like stuff that you would not say if your name were attached to it. Not like this guy needs to work on his jump shot or whatever, like, but like, like this guy's just a loser. And you'd be like, really? You're just gonna, and you don't know who the scout is. It could be like scout number 12 in the depth chart.

00:18:59

Right.

00:19:00

And I think like, I love Bobby Marks. He's very close to me. Like we, we're of a great relationship. We're both Mets fans, all of it. I just think like, just gatekeep that one. Like random analytics guy saying something that you know is objectively crazy is just like, you don't have to share that one. Number 2, even if he shares it and he did, I promise you, everyone from Jaylen Brown to Green Runs Deep to Joe Celtics Fan, you don't have to care. You don't have to get mad about it. It is possible to just dismiss it as the one opinion of a stupid analytics staffer whose name we don't know, whose team we don't know, whose experience we don't know, and just move on with your life. You don't need to make it a news cycle for 48 hours. You can just go outside. Ride a bike, go to the beach, take a swim, read a book, cook a meal. Like, you don't have to make it a thing. And nor do— nor does anyone in the media. And this is the end of me making it a thing. Please move on. No more talk about it.

00:20:03

Right. I agree with everything you just said. But again, like the whole— the toothpaste back in the tube thing, it's like if you didn't want to be in trade rumors, then you should have negotiated a no trade in your contract. This is kind of like, not to be, you know, Don Draper, this is what, this is what the money is for. The Celtics gave Jaylen Brown a supermax extension right after they lost to the 8th seed Miami Heat. And in a Game 7 where Tatum got hurt on like the first play, and then Jaylen Brown proceeded to get outplayed by Caleb Martin. So obviously, you know, the Celtics have belief in Jaylen Brown. They have, they understand his value. They gave him $285 million on that deal. They gave him, they've given him over $400 million in his career. So the feelings hurt thing is just like, I'm not taking a, you know, some of the fake trades that I've seen. I just, I would just not do that if I was Boston. I think there are significant step back, step back from championship contention, which is not what you want to do when you have Jason Tatum.

00:21:11

I think that's their only choice is a trade that is, even if it can be spun as like, hey, this is a smart trade with these long-term assets and this financial flexibility and clearing up the hierarchy, it will be a step back in '27, '26, '27, and maybe '27, '28. And that's, you're going to be your, I don't think there's the barring this fake Kawhi trade that I don't think has any traction. I don't know that there's a trade that's not a step back that exists.

00:21:42

I have a fake one for you. I want— tell me how realistic you think this is. Sacramento Kings, Sabonis, DeRozan, who's got a non-guaranteed, $10 million guaranteed, and 3 firsts. For Jaylen Brown.

00:22:01

I don't think the Kings are doing that with that level of draft equity involved. Sabonis is a good name though for a team that really needs like a proven NBA center. I mean, Nimiketa is now proven as a regular season starter and then after that got a little dicey. That's a good, that's a good, in fact, the Kings are on my list of just, so like, let's just real quickly. Here are teams about whom there's been noise with Jaylen Brown or reported connections or fake trade connections that I think are now either out or mostly out. Brooklyn, Detroit, Clippers, Houston. I don't think Houston's ever been in, um, What are some other names that have been like bandied about that I should, that I should hit? 'Cause I'm gonna then go to the teams that make, oh, Portland. Portland, maybe Portland is in. I don't know. I'm not convinced that they're in. They could be in. That's, I'm not crossing that one off. If all those teams are out, then I'm looking for like, well, who's in that would surprise me, right? Do you have a team? You're looking at the teams.

00:23:15

Did you say the Pelicans?

00:23:16

That's Pelicans, I have no clue. No clue. I mean, you could build any number of trades. It could be a Zion trade, a Trey trade, a Herb plus Trey trade, a Herb plus Zion trade, a no Zion trade. There's like a million possibilities. And DeJounte Murray, they don't really need. So I'll keep them in the in circle. Denver, I think, has to be monitored and we'll get to them in a second as one of the main characters of the offseason. And then I'm like, is there a team that's off my radar that I need to look deeper at. Sacramento was one. Now, I didn't think of Sabonis. What I thought of was Keegan Murray, DeAndre Hunter, and some draft assets that are obviously not Acuff. Maybe I get Caraban as a win-now player or something like that. Eh, again, like, it's eh. I thought like, do we need to keep an eye on Atlanta again? Who's just sort of like, like, but I don't know what the money is in that one. Like, does Dyson Daniels plus Kaminga plus some future and, and what's the blue chip young player? 'Cause obviously it's not gonna be Kingston Fleming's like, what's, what's the, is it Dyson Daniels?

00:24:23

Is that, that exciting to me as the Celtics? Or do I get Nikhil Alexander-Walker somehow thrown in there? I, I just don't see a great deal for either side. Obviously Jalen is from Atlanta. I thought about Dallas because they were, they've been rumored everywhere and I'm not sure any of those rumors are true. You just have to pile up a ton of players and again, I don't know who's like, PJ Washington plus Najee Marshall plus Klay Thompson. Like, that's not— I need something younger and more exciting than that. And by the way, notable report from Christian Clark at The Athletic over the weekend. Derek Lively is out of his walking boot but still hasn't progressed to running or jumping as he works his way back from multiple right foot surgeries. Okay. Like, I'm, I'm— my ears went up with that in terms of like, I don't know, I mean, Orlando, for one of the star players on Orlando, that just feels like a too seismic a change for everybody involved. So I don't really like even know what other teams to really be paying attention to right now. And I think they might be stuck between a rock and a hard place here for a bit.

00:25:26

Well, so let me just ask you, like, what is wrong with bringing him back? Like, I, I unders— I understand the money. I understand like how expensive he is. I know how difficult it is to build around two guys who will earn 70% of your cap for the next 3 years. Like, I totally, I get all that, but the Celtics are like really good. And if you bring, if you, if you, if you, you know, shift things around the margins here and don't have Vooch as your, your, your backup center, I just think like you're still a very good team that can win the Eastern Conference. Like, am I, am I crazy?

00:26:04

Let's take a quick break and then I will answer that question.

00:26:09

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00:26:40

I don't think anything is wrong with bringing Jaylen Brown back. I think a couple of things though have changed. He seems legitimately mad about the Celtics putting him in trade talks. And like, I understand it's too easy for us to say, hey man, it's Giannis. Giannis is better than you. Giannis is a top 25 all-time player, multiple MVP, Finals MVP, just like you. If I'm Jaylen Brown, like, I, these are just like, I'm not wired that way. I, I'm 29. I play every game. I just saved, in my mind, this is how I would think if I were Jaylen Brown. I just saved our season when everyone thought we were gonna suck and I carried the team and I'm a Finals MVP, an East Finals MVP. Like, I don't want to be in trade. How about I'm not in trade talks for anybody? How about that? How about we get to that point? That's just how he would think. And the other thing that's materially changed is he got a taste of running his own team. And I think that, and they won 56 games. And I think that really matters. And Tatum, the Tatum integration went pretty smoothly.

00:27:45

I thought for the most part, there were definitely segments, particularly in the playoffs where it's like, oh, there's a lot of Tatum going on right now and not as much Jaylen Brown going on. And like, but that's, but that's also okay. There will be segments where there's a lot of Jaylen Brown going on and not as much Jason Tatum going on. That's just part of this imperfect yet wildly fruitful partnership. But I do think things have shifted a little bit. And the other thing is, you know, you said the words sell high. I do think there's probably some worry within the Celtics of, yes, there's only 3 years left on this mega contract. Does his value rise or fall as his contract gets closer to expiration or as he becomes closer to— he's eligible for an extension now that I would be shocked if he got. So I think those are all factors. I don't, I feel like they're gonna trade him. I just feel like this has gotten too far and too much has happened and too many teams have been involved and contacted and all that. But I don't disagree that if, if there's no palatable trade, I don't see any problem bringing him back.

00:28:46

I think Missoula is really good at mending fences and getting everyone on the same page. But you know, TBD on that. Any, did we forget any teams?

00:28:56

I don't think so. I think you, you hit them all. Atlanta was the one that, I mean, Charlotte, but not, no, Charlotte's another one.

00:29:06

I'm glad you mentioned it.

00:29:07

Yeah.

00:29:07

I don't think Charlotte's, I don't think Charlotte's interested. I mean, every team could be interested, right? Like I don't think anyone ever with a player of this quality just like out, out, out. It just depends what the price is. That's the thing with the Rockets and the Hornets. I just don't think those teams have really jumped in. In a way that would suggest to me that they're actually interested in Jaylen Brown. Portland is the wild card for me that I just can't really read their, their intentions. Speaking of the Kings, by the way, you're gonna be shocked by this, Michael. Sit down. If you have a seatbelt on your, on your desk chair, buckle it. Zach Lavine opted in to his $49 million deal for this coming season. I know you expected him to opt out and test unrestricted free agency. He has opted in with the Kings. By the way, a guy I would keep an eye on as the Heat go bargain hunting to try to fill out this roster, if DeMar DeRozan gets bought out at any point, I would, I would think he could make some sense for the Heat along with Buddy Hield and Tim Hardaway Jr.

00:30:04

and Mike Conley and all these sort of just like grab bag of guys as the Heat tried to cobble together a team. Okay. I think I'm out of thoughts on Jalen Brown. I do think, let's move on. Main character number 3, the Denver Nuggets, who this morning tendered qualifying offers to Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones. And I just think ended the season with Jokic playing maybe the worst playoff series of his career against the Timberwolves and Rudy Gobert's defense ended the season with Aaron Gordon injured yet again. And I think end of the season, both their own season and watching the Spurs and the Thunder and their seasons, understanding like, ooh, this has gotten pretty dicey for us really fast. Marc Stein and Jake Fisher broke the news over the weekend that Jokic may delay signing his extension, which he's delayed last season for reasons that made financial sense and no longer really apply now. I think that story is mostly nothing, but not 100% nothing. I don't think he's ever gonna leave Denver. I don't think he wants to leave Denver, but, but, and I don't think there's gonna ever be like, you've gotta do these 5 moves or I'm leaving Denver.

00:31:24

I just think it's like, it's been noted, it's been noted within the Nuggets that he's not signed yet, and maybe he signs in 2 weeks and it's all moot. I think that's all gonna be fine.. But I think this team has reached a crossroads where it's like something about us has grown a little bit stale and is not good enough to beat these two teams ahead of us. And we have a guy who has been the best player in the world, or maybe number two or number three now for the last 7 years, 6 years, 5 years. We've gotta act. And even if the act is change for the sake of change, we've gotta try something. And that's why when Bill brought up his, I think it was, Jalen Brown and Sam Hauser for Jamal Murray. And was it Aaron Gordon? I can't, no, it wasn't Aaron Gordon. It was Jamal Murray. No, it was Cam, Cam, Cam Johnson. That's a really interesting trade. And I do think Denver has kicked the tires on Jalen Brown. What do you think of that trade and what Denver is already like at the first apron before you even put a dollar in for Watson and Spencer Jones?

00:32:28

Like, what's realistic here?

00:32:32

I, I, from Boston's perspective, I think that if you're going to trade Jaylen Brown, getting a very, very good All-NBA level player, um, who's where Jamal Murray is, would, would make some sense. I don't know. Well, Jaylen Brown's probably a little bit better, but I love Jamal Murray, and obviously Cam Johnson Great 3-point shooter, had an up and down season, but very good player. Feel like that's a watch there with Hauser. If I'm the Denver Nuggets, I just, I have a, obviously in recognizing and acknowledging how they went out last year was really tough. I have a hard time conceiving the Denver Nuggets without the Jokic Murray tandem, which I just think is still very special in a lot of ways. And you know, when those two shared the floor last year, their offensive rating was 130, which was— led the NBA among all two-man tandems that played at least 1,000 minutes. They're still exceptional together. And I, I just think that Jaylen Brown is a totally different type of player. And I'm not saying it can't work on the court, and obviously he adds athleticism and power and force and defense for sure, on-ball defense.

00:33:56

I just, I don't know if that makes you that much better if you're the Denver Nuggets. And so that's kind of a tricky one. And I just real quick touching on the extension news with Jokic kind of delaying it. I agree with you that it's probably nothing, but it is also like a, a smidge of him putting his finger on the scale. I feel like if he wanted to sign the extension, he could just sign it. I mean, he can do it any day between now and I think next June, so that's fine. But the fact that he hasn't already is just, it's interesting and I want to see, you know, they traded their first round pick. Obviously, and a cost-cutting move, which was tough to see. But more shoes are left to drop here with regards to Peyton Watson and how much they're willing to spend and are they going to be in the second apron and this and that. So it's going to be really interesting to see what happens. But that trade is, is a, it also feels like a your problem, my problem type of trade that I don't, I don't think that, I don't think that Denver gets necessarily closer to winning a title with it.

00:35:08

I think that's a, it's an interesting concept to me because it fits my, we just need a different look. And part of what we need is more size. And the words you use, athleticism, power, I wrote oomph. Like they're just with Aaron Gordon increasingly just like, I just have to plan my team around the idea that he's just not going to be able to stay healthy for the whole playoffs. And without him, they just don't have enough power and size and oomph and physicality. It's why to me Peyton Watson is a must. I have to bring Peyton Watson back if I'm Denver. I, what he showed when Jokic and half the team was injured, he's not gonna be able to play like that for Denver. You're not getting 25 pick and rolls a game and all this, but just, and, and in terms of power, he's better defending guards than he is defending fours and, and, and big guys, but he's very versatile defensively. And just the athleticism and speed and size. I, I think he's an absolute must. He's gonna have suitors in Chicago, Los Angeles, the Lakers maybe might show some interest in him.

00:36:15

I think you've gotta bring him back if you're the Nuggets. But that's why that trade of like, all right, we're just not gonna have any guards on the team, but we're gonna have all like super powerful wings and then we'll figure out the guards later is conceptually interesting to me. But to me, like, I've gotta bring Peyton Watson back if I'm the Nuggets almost no matter what I do.. And then I've gotta make some choices of like, I'm either going over the second apron or I'm salary dumping somebody somewhere. And am I, do I have enough to pay for the salary dumping of someone somewhere? I don't know. By the way, another just aside that I forgot that I should have mentioned about Dallas and Jaylen Brown and Kawhi and all that, like Dallas is out a lot of picks, like going forward. They don't have a ton of picks to trade. They have the Lakers pick one year courtesy of some trade. I can't remember how they got a Lakers pick. It boggles my, I don't remember it. But that's neither here nor there. So I'm just fascinated by Denver because they feel like a team that should be ready to take a stylistic gamble.

00:37:11

And I don't know what that is, but I'm very interested to see what that is. And that Boston deal is just fascinating to, by the way, that Bill's just making that up. I don't think that's been discussed. That's just a Picasso of the trade machine deal. But I think it's very interesting. And now, Timely main character number 4, Michael Peña, unless you have any other Denver thoughts you want to get off your chest.

00:37:35

No, we're good. We're good. We can move on.

00:37:39

Main character number 4 is LeBron James, who is an unrestricted free agent who doesn't appear as of right now to have been tendered a real offer by the Lakers for his services. The Lakers are staring at a scenario where they could have like 45 -ish million dollars of cap room to use, but they'd have to renounce all their outgoing free agents, including LeBron and Rui Hachimura. Rui Hachimura, I would bet on not being a Laker next year, but I wouldn't bet heavily on it. That's just my educated intel. Or they could stay over the cap and basically bring back most of the same gang. In related news, Sham Stranair reports that Draymond Green has declined his $27 million player option for next season. This move, according to Shams, gives the Warriors flexibility to pursue LeBron James in free agency and Anthony Davis via trade to form a Big Four. Now I'm assuming the Big Four in that scenario are Steph, Draymond, LeBron, and Anthony Davis, and that Jimmy Butler, who's recovering from a torn ACL, is moved in a theoretical Anthony Davis trade. I was told last week that if Draymond indeed opted out of $27 million, it would not be to leave the Warriors, or not likely be to leave the Warriors.

00:38:59

It would likely be to sign a longer deal at lesser money, particularly in this year, to give them the flexibility to upgrade the roster. I'm not— this is the Expendables fantasy scenario that Bill is like 3 months into outlining and patenting, and I keep seeing people steal the Expendables from him. No, That's his thing. I don't know that that big four is good enough to beat the Thunder or the Spurs in a playoff series. It's, it's very old and injury-prone, and those are bad things to be when you're facing young, deep rising teams. But it would sure be a hell of a lot of fun. It would make the Warriors must-watch. The Steph-LeBron thing is a proven thing. Like they go beautifully together. And Anthony Davis, I mean, I have no earthly clue what the Wizards actually want to do with Anthony Davis. Longtime Wizard Anthony Davis. He makes $58 million this year. He's extension eligible. I know that I would stay as far away from an Anthony Davis contract extension as I possibly could, no matter what team I was. And then he has a $63 million player option for next year. He's still a very good player.

00:40:11

He just doesn't play basketball very much. And he's old, like not, he's older. Unlike, unlike a guy like Lamelo Ball, who at least has age on his side. Anthony Davis has the injury plus age nexus is now kind of working against him.

00:40:26

How old?

00:40:26

I'm looking up right now. What is he, 31, 32? He is 33 actually. So, I mean, AD would be, he still has a lot of good basketball in him and he obviously like gives the Warriors a defensive backline presence like they have not had in a long, long time and a lob threat and all of that stuff. It would just be interesting to watch him and Draymond, you know, how does that all fit together? But that's, those are luxury problems for the Warriors who have a lot of draft picks to trade. As for the Wizards, I have just no earthly clue what they want to do with longtime Wizard Anthony Davis. There was tons of buzz over the weekend that they were going to be open to moving him. And then I heard the exact opposite when I started checking around, like, no, that's all inaccurate. They want Anthony Davis on the team. I would assume if the Warriors made a palatable offer, why wouldn't the Wizards at least entertain it? I think the Trae Young extension, which was bizarrely expensive, and I already talked about it, to me indicates that Anthony Davis is not long for Washington either way.

00:41:26

I just don't see any universe in which 3 years from now, 2 years from now, the Wizards are paying those guys $110 million combined or whatever it would be.

00:41:34

Mm-hmm.

00:41:35

So I would assume if I had to cut through the noise the best I could, I would assume Warriors offer something realistic, they could probably get in the conversation. And as for LeBron, look, I have no, no one has any idea. I have no idea. The best I can do is like cross teams off. I kind of crossed the Clippers off already last week when I said like, yeah, they can open cap space. I've just been told over and over again that he doesn't want to play for the Clippers. Maybe that changes if the Clippers change their roster on, I don't know. It seems like this Warriors thing has more momentum than the Cavs thing and maybe even than the Lakers thing. The Lakers return, although I thought he, he clearly settled into like a winning third banana roll before everybody else got hurt. Reaves and, and Luka around him. I find this fascinating. I mean, I just don't know what it really amounts to in terms of chasing an NBA championship, but I know that Steph plus LeBron plus AD plus Draymond is absolute must-watch television and at the very least, like, interesting. I, I, I, my, I can't wrap my brain around what qual— like, what's the over-under on that team?

00:42:44

I have absolutely no idea. They're ancient and injury-prone in AD's case, but it's clearly better than what the Warriors are now.

00:42:53

It's, it's interesting. It's entertaining. I think depth could obviously be an issue. Health would be an issue. Athleticism. You know, they brought back Al Horford on a deal. I don't know what Moses Moody's status is, but can be out for a while, gonna be out if not for a while.

00:43:11

I, I don't know. I mean, I'm just penciling in like out for the season, but we'll see, right?

00:43:17

So I mean, it's, it's, it's top-heavy for sure. Um, all the players that we're talking about are in some kind of decline. They're also super special and when healthy, play at a pretty, pretty high level. So can they beat the Spurs? Can they beat the Thunder? Could they beat the healthy Nuggets?

00:43:42

I don't know.

00:43:42

It's an interesting one. I would want to see it for sure. And I think that it's just a lot to think about with regard— I mean, we've seen LeBron and Steph on Team USA. I thought that that was really symbiotic in a lot of ways, and there's some versatile things that you can do offensively with all that intelligence. But yeah, it's an interesting one. I don't know if it can win the title though.

00:44:21

I just, I can't conceptualize the team. Like the Steph-LeBron two-man game is obviously like, that's a dream come true for everybody to get to see that on the biggest stage. And we saw it in the Olympics. Where's Anthony Davis when that's going on? Where's Draymond Green when that's going on? Does this team have depth? Does it have defense? Where's Al Horford? I have no clue. Like De'Anthony Melton has a player option. Is he coming back? Is he not coming back? Pajemski's still around. Like it's a good team. It's a fun team. If they're down 2-1 in the second round to San Antonio, it's gonna be unbelievable wherever the game is. If it's in Golden State, Yeah. And it's just, it would be fun theater. And I talked about this with Bill who pitched the Spurs as a LeBron destination. And he asked me, would you consider him a ring chaser? Would people consider him a quote, ring chaser in that scenario going glomming onto a team like the Spurs who just made the finals? And I said two things. Number one, I think the Spurs is a good franchise to pick out because I don't, and this goes back to the Clippers with apologies to the Clippers and their fans.

00:45:21

I don't think he's going to a franchise that doesn't have some level of gravitas to it. And the Spurs have gravitas. I also said the dude is 41 years old. It's a miracle that he's still in the NBA. It's a triple miracle that he's still one of the 25 best players in the NBA. Do whatever the hell you want at that point. No one is being like, oh, LeBron chasing rings at age 42. No, it's gonna be like LeBron's having fun. At age 42. And all these guys coming together would be fun. And this would not, I mean, I don't, I think this is not even a ring chase. I mean, it, it, they could talk themselves into it. I can't see 4 playoff series wins out of a team this old, but it's definitely a basketball nirvana chase. It's like, I want to end my career playing with a bunch of other basketball geniuses and a teammate that I've had in Anthony Davis before and I like and I'm fond of. Let's have some fucking fun and see how this works.

00:46:17

I don't think that anything LeBron does should be considered a ring chase at this point. And I frankly would love for him to be in a situation where he can win another ring. I mean, I think that one of the cool things about how last season ended with the Los Angeles Lakers and him finding this, this, this role that was very new to him, but best for the team was that they were a team that was able to maximize all the parts with him not, you know, having the highest usage or being the first scoring option or whatever and winning. They were winning down the stretch and they were very good until Luka got hurt against the Oklahoma City Thunder. So it's fun when LeBron is in the hunt and I would love for to see him go to any situation where that were the case and he was still functioning in a large meaningful role as he was last year with the Lakers.

00:47:14

Buckle up, baby. The Warriors are doing Warriors things and just nothing is more Warriors than chasing like this kind of thing, which is super fun. Let's wrap up real quickly because I want to get this up as soon as possible as things are happening. Other quick thoughts. Another main character I think is going to be the Pistons who opened up some space by dumping Isaiah Stewart. And then used some of it on a great acquisition of Isaiah Joe that immediately made me think, huh, Duncan Robinson's contract is like very little guaranteed for next season. They could open up even more space again by doing something with him. And then if they do that, where does Duncan Robinson go? I think Detroit's up to something. I don't know what it is. Any quick thoughts on that?

00:48:00

This is the Trey Murphy team for me still. This is the Ron Holland, Karris LeVert, and 4 picks for Trey Murphy.

00:48:09

4 picks.

00:48:10

Let him be, let him be the Desmond Bain of your team. Let him be the Mikal Bridges. I feel like if you're the Detroit Pistons, this is our team. You know, it's gonna get very expensive, but Cade, Asar Thompson, Jalen Duren whenever he resigns, Trey Murphy, Isaiah Joe, all the other pieces on the team. Like it's just, We were in, we were the best team in the Eastern Conference last year. We're, we're clearly understanding things about ourselves and we made an identity shift in a lot of ways by trading, essentially trading Isaiah Stewart for Isaiah Joe.

00:48:44

Oh, double Isaiah.

00:48:46

Yeah. A double. I just realized that was coming outta my mouth, but yeah, that can win the title. So what are we like? That's, and it's not just like a 1-year thing with it. Trey Murphy is not 30 years old. He, he makes sense with with Cade and he makes sense with that young core. So yeah, I would do whatever it takes honestly to get Trae. I think he's a perfect fit for what they do, how they play. Fits in on both sides of the ball and why not do it?

00:49:14

I think, I think 4 picks would get it done immediately. Just a couple other quick thoughts before we go here. Hornets, 2 big trades, obviously LaMelo and then Miles Bridges, and they got Royce O'Neal and Grayson Allen and a 2023 unprotected pick with the 29th pick going to Phoenix. I covered that with Bill yesterday. Mm-hmm. I, the only thing I will say, I, I loved that trade for Charlotte. I did not like it for Phoenix. It raises some interesting roster questions for Phoenix. I like everything else Phoenix has done so far this summer. I think Jalen Green now becomes one of the biggest wildcards in the league over the next 18 months with his player option for $36 million for the '27-'28 season. We'll see if he's part of their long-term plans, particularly if they extend Dillon Brooks. That almost feels like a, either or financially for them. The only thing I'll say about Charlotte that I haven't said is I think, I wonder if the new lottery rules emboldened them even more to get off of LaMelo because I think they're willing to take a small step back next season. I think the lottery rules just may make a lot of teams in Charlotte's position rethink like, hey, feel-good season, 44 wins.

00:50:27

Played at like a 55-win pace in the last half-plus of the season. We could go all in or semi-all in or a half of another foot in for next season and chase every win. And if we do, don't do that, the other option might be taking a small step back and like in the East actually missing the playoffs if things go wrong, if you have an injury or whatever, if the LaMelo void is worse than you think.

00:50:48

Mm-hmm.

00:50:49

And I think they looked at that and were like, well, what's the worst thing that happens? We miss the playoffs. We have a bunch of draft assets if our own pick is in the lottery. And Dallas's pick is in the lottery. We just, you know, the new lottery helps us. There's not, it's not bad to be 13 in the lottery anymore. So I thought that was an interesting, smart little thought by them. And then the Bulls had a great draft. Everybody loves the Bulls draft. It does have to be frustrating for Bulls fans to watch these teams clamor to pay pretty fair contracts to Ioja Soomnu and Colby White when you just gave them away for nothing. And that's all I really want to say. 'Cause we got a big week coming up and it's already starting. I'm glad all this stuff happened while we were on this podcast. The Warriors, man, I just, Steve Kerr's coming back and it's like, let's have a party, let's go. And maybe they'll make it happen. And I wonder honestly if like, I wonder if the Lakers would almost be relieved to not to, to like, not that they want to not have LeBron on their team, but just the clarity of Okay, now we can operate as a cap space team.

00:51:53

Now we can really start turning over the team to make it look like Luka, how, how Luka wants it to look. And by the way, they have a lot of work to do to get it to look like they do. Wants it to look with him on the clock. But that's it for this morning. Michael Peña, what do we got coming up from you? You wrote, what did you, you wrote something, you wrote about something over the weekend. I can't remember what it was. So much has been happening. Giannis, you wrote about Giannis, I think, right? Yeah. That trade.

00:52:17

I wrote about Giannis when the trade happened. Did a little offseason preview, had a bunch of questions. Oh, that's what it was. Yeah, Jalen. And I think I proposed that Trey Murphy million picks for Trey Murphy thing that the Detroit Pistons should do. Hopefully that happens. Yeah, just gonna be covering, covering the summer, covering the offseason. It's gonna be very busy free agency starting tomorrow, so can't wait.

00:52:44

I gotta time a swim meet tomorrow and I'm gonna be timing and have my phone in one hand. I'm gonna be like Joe Dumars except with a stopwatch on a phone. Can't— I might accidentally answer a call with the stopwatch tomorrow and mess up with my timing. Michael Pina, you're the best. Thank you, sir. Thank you, Zach. All right, that's it for today's edition of the Zach Lowe Show. Buckle up, transactions are coming. It's that time of year. Summer League is right around the corner. I'll be in Vegas in a little over a week. I can't believe we're already there. Thank you to Michael Pina for his time and expertise. Thanks as always to Mike, Jonathan, and Billy on production. Thanks to you all for listening to and/or watching The Zak Lo Show. We'll be back later this week, either Wednesday or Thursday, as news trickles in ahead of your holiday weekend. Idemo hervatska, and we will be back soon. Thanks everybody. 21 or over and present in select states for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 and over and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming, gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800- My Reset, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

00:53:51

Or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867.

Episode description

Zach is joined by Michael Pina to break down everything ahead of the official start of NBA free agency. They cover the moves that have already happened and discuss who the main character of the offseason will be. Finally, they share their thoughts on the Suns acquiring Miles Bridges.

(0:00) Welcome to The Zach Lowe Show!

(1:14) Michael Pina joins the show!

(1:46) Most intriguing move we already know of

(4:56) Main character no. 1 - Kawhi Leonard

(13:06) Main character no. 2 - Jaylen Brown

(17:24) Zach’s thoughts on analytics-gate

(22:42) Teams that might actually be in on a Brown trade

(25:17) Can the Celtics just bring him back?

(28:55) Main character no. 3 - The Denver Nuggets

(36:05) Main character no. 4 - LeBron James

(37:15) Is a Warriors Big Four looming?

(46:07) Main character no. 5 - The Detroit Pistons

(48:00) Suns acquire Miles Bridges

Host: Zach Lowe

Guest: Michael Pina

Producers: Jonathan Frias, Billy Gil, and Mike Wargon

Social: Keith Fujimoto and Michael Szokoli

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