Transcript of Ambassador Rahm Emanuel Discusses Trump’s Failing Trade War

You have the ruling party right now in Japan falling apart. Turmoyal there. You have China trying to assert strength in the region. You've got Donald Trump rolling out of bed and posting a social media, whatever, rant, saying that he's going to impose more tariffs on China right now. The problem, the guy just wakes up out of bed, rolls over and just writes things like, Some very strange things are happening in China. They are becoming very hostile. You think? You're just learning that, Donald? They're becoming very hostile and sending letters to country throughout the world that they want to impose export controls on each and every element of production having to do with rare earths and virtually anything else they can think of, even if it's not manufactured in China. Nobody has ever seen anything like it. Essentially, it would clog the markets and make life difficult for virtually every country in the world, especially for China. I'm not going to read the whole thing because he goes on and on and on. But then he basically says that we are going to think about a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States, and there are many other countermeasures we're going to be taking.

It's like he learns these things happening for the very first time, rolls out of bed and posts them. It's very, very strange. You had Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent making his rounds on Fox and other networks based basically saying, Don't worry, the Chinese will come back. The Chinese will come back. Just watch what Bessent says. I'm not sure how this is negotiating from a position of strength. Let's play it.

Negotiations, correct?

Well, that and holding the American soybean farmers hostage, they politicize these soybean purchases, and most of them have gone to Brazil. We're not going to let that happen. I believe that the Chinese will have to come back at the end of the season and buy soy beans.

But then earlier, Donald Trump seemed to be seeding all of the leverage regarding actually helping our farmers and having a coherent policy vis-a-vis China. I don't know, maybe cementing better relationships with South Korea and Japan. He's been focused on the TikTok deal and all of his rich friends in the TikTok deal that he needs China to approve. So all of Trump's focus is now, I guess, making TikTok into Magotox. Trump had said this earlier. Here, play this clip.

United States has that value in its hand because we're the ones that have to approve it. I specifically get the right to approve it. The people that are investing it are among the greatest investors in the world, the biggest, the richest, and they'll do a great job. And we're doing it in conjunction with China. But we are getting the United States is getting a tremendous fee plus. I call it a fee plus for just making the deal. I don't want to throw that out the window. I can say this, that you'll have a lot of very unhappy youth. I use TikTok very legitimately Very straight, just statements every day. I do little statements, short statements. Sir, make it short, please. And TikTok Jack, we call them. It was pretty good.

He uses it very legitimately. He just wants everybody to know. Unlike Truth Social, where he sends direct messages in public to His attorney general demanding that she criminally prosecute his political enemies. As I mentioned earlier, turmoil in Japan as the Komiato Party ending its coalition with the ruling liberal Democratic Party, sending their markets down significantly on the day. It was on the news that it was possible that the liberal Democratic Party's far-right wing, Takayashi, was potentially going to be the Prime Minister, and now there's a total mess there. But to help make sense of all of this mess, there's nobody better to talk about the former ambassador to Japan, former Chief of Staff, former President Obama, former mayor of Chicago. I can't think of someone else who knows more about this region and connecting it to what's happening to the American economy than you, Ram, ambassador Emmanuel. Great to see you, Ram. I appreciate you being on here. Let's make sense of Asia first, of what's going on, if we can, with your experience and what you're seeing and observing and how concerning it is to you. Then let's talk about some domestic issues.

Look, I guess you look at this and I think basically, Donald Trump's been caught by how he's treated both allies, our friends and foes. China's basically found leverage. They They've done critical minerals before, go back to 2012 against Japan, and they've applied pressure, and they're going to apply pressure. They're doing it to a of soybean farmers in Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, et cetera. They're now buying Brazilian and Argentinian soy beans. Our farmers have lost that market and are out huge amount of money, and you could see a lot of bankruptcies in the rural parts of the Midwest in that area. China's basically, I know Donald Trump thinks he's the greatest, but is outperforming him, finding leverage points and squeezing. They gave away the TikTok, and they know one thing, Donald Trump, and it's well known in China, it's all over the media, is it really desirous not only for the meeting, but for a trade deal. They're going to find their leverage points. All of a sudden, the President woke up and realized that he's behind... He's put America, and most importantly, himself in this negotiation, behind the eight ball. I don't fault China. I'm not for what they're doing, but they've decided, basically, We're going to squeeze you and we're going to find leverage.

Now, he says, I want to raise tariffs, et cetera, but he's already done that. China is higher than, I think, Vietnam in Indonesia and Japan. And so he can continue to do that, but that tick for tack will not work for the economy in the United States. And so he's basically rather than project strength, project weakness. Now, the second component of this is, you talk to political structure in Japan. When we did export controls on semiconductors against China, the reason they were effective and had China on the back foot is Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Dutch all stood shoulder to shoulder with the United States. Today, they're not ready to do that because they don't trust the United States. They've lost confidence in the steadiness of America's approach under Donald Trump. And that means the comprehensiveness, the completeness of an embargo or a set of sanctions can happen. The other thing, besides the TikTok deal, that China really didn't care as much as Trump did, President gave away on NVIDIA chips to China for nothing, for a meeting. There was a lot of consternation inside his own foreign policy establishment about, and Democrats, and I would add my voice to that, of how costly that giveaway was in the sense of the semiconductor, advanced chip competitiveness between the United States and China.

I think about the delicacy with which you were chief of staff, how you would handle these meetings the carefulness that would be brought to just the language that was used, and every aspect of it was handled with the utmost meticulousness. Then I contrast that with how Donald Trump has been bringing in the President of South Korea and saying all of these things in front of him that seem to be highly offensive culturally on many different levels that would have certain reactions back and forth, not to mention raiding the Georgia factory right around the same time the President took that visit of South Korea there, then making comments about Japan, not meeting with leaders, like he'd show up, have meetings scheduled, and then ditch the meetings, which would send messages back home and create the turmoil there. And so can you speak to... What goes through your mind when Donald Trump's standing there with the world leader and he's saying, You're giving me $750 billion or $550 billion?

Let me get to this one thing. I know there will be no Japanese government is going to sign over $500 billion to the United States.

There's going to be no South Korea government that's going to turn over $440 billion. What You know these leaders, though, when they're sitting there, what's going on in front of us when you're seeing that take place?

Look, I don't know how to answer. I mean, they're sitting there and part of their calculation is how not to be on the wrong side of Donald Trump and get out of this meeting with some wins, with least amount of embarrassment or danger in this area. But one of the things that as ambassador, we try to do is reverse the playbook on China. China tries to isolate Japan, a Korea, a Philippines, or Australia, where they used economic coercion. By bringing everybody together through India, Australia, Japan, the United States in the quad, United States, Japan, Japan, Korea, in the Trilat, the same thing with the Philippines. We isolated the isolator, and China felt it, which is why they complained. We haven't even touched, we're talking about Japan and Korea. Our mismanagement of of India, a major, major counterweight against China, both on the manufacturing technology side, but also on the military side, and keeping not just the Pacific, but the Indo part of the Indian Ocean part for China. The President of the United States has literally thrown away 40 years of meticulous strategic planning and preparation and enhancing and warming the relationship through Democratic-Republican administrations, even in his first He threw it all away because Modi would not say that the President deserves a Nobel Prize for the ceasefire that he worked out, Modi believes, with the Pakistanis on their own.

And the President, out of ego and then out of money from Pakistan that was paying both his son and Wykow son. This is a major strategic blunder that China has used to their advantage. And that's on the strategic level. And on the economic level, the United States is tariffing and putting tariffs on our allies without thinking through all the equities on defense spending, political alignment of our strategic interests vis-a-vis China, and then our economic integration, which is going to require friends and allies working together with the United States. I will say his chaotic process worked in the final days here in Gaza because he took advantage of the leverage he had on Bibi Netanyahu and also organizing the Arab world to leverage Hamas, finally. That chaotic process is now a detriment. That same tactic is a detriment in confronting China.

I think, this is an admission by me, that when I started this at work. I focus so much on the horse race of domestic politics and not connecting it to these international events because they are interconnected. And by ignoring what's happening abroad, I was ignoring the root causes of what's to our farmers here? Why are our businesses struggling to export things? Why are they struggling here? I made a bigger deal about talking about international and then talking about domestic, which I want to get into now because we're really feeling it here in the United States. I mean, Trump's, in addition to all of the other nonsense and craziness and dangerous stuff that was on the campaign, affordability, saying that things were going to get better on day one, I'll make things cheaper was one of the purported selling points. He said a bunch of crazy stuff as well. But now he goes out and about and he claims he did it. He goes out and he goes with the repetition. If I just say, I did it, I did it. He goes, I solved inflation. Things are great. Everything's better. I'm the one who've done it.

Isn't everybody living a golden age? What's interesting at this moment, I want to get your take, is it just doesn't feel like that's working as we're here approaching mid-October and people are like, No, I'm not doing good. Health care is a real thing for me, not a fake thing for me. I'm suffering. I'm struggling. Stop saying things are good. They're not good. What do you make of that?

I just saw right beforehand, surveyed this on some sentiment. The one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on is both are sour on the economy. It used to be there was a partisan split on the economy based on the President's Party affiliation. That now has changed. But everybody Across the line, not the same percentages, but a majority of Democrats and a majority of Republicans are negative of the common, A. B, very important fact, only 10% of the society that's making 250,000 or more is holding up 50% of consumer spend. It's the most narrow piece of an inverse pyramid, and we haven't had that in decades at this higher level. For a lot of the country and a lot of the public, they are really struggling, and close to, if not in a recession, and take subprime car loans are way behind schedule, worse than 90 days, the highest it's been in over 20 years. All the indicators, and again, we don't have a lot of government data because of what's happening in the shutdown, are indicating that, in fact, this is not a golden age. People are struggling day in and day out. Then you have these 20% increases in utility rates, 10% increase in health care costs, only 12% of people under the age of 30 can afford to buy their first home Home.

So every measure of what comes to the quality life of American dream, the contract, has crumbled. People now are struggling, and the American dream has turned more into a nightmare We're not going to dream. And that's where we are. And the President of the United States can say whatever he wants. In my own view, my assessment, he's going to commit the same mistake that Joe Biden made, which is telling people things are great, look at all the data, and people in their day in and day out lives don't see that, and not only don't see that, are struggling, and they're negative to his stewardship of the economy. One fact, going back to the other subject. On our imports, almost 50% of our imports are products that go into manufacturing here in the United States. Japan, by way of an example, is the largest investor in the United States. Half their investment goes into manufacturing. So when you start raising tariffs, you're raising tariffs on Things that are actually helping the United States continue to be a manufacturing powerhouse or an economy. It's the wrong approach to a good end, which is how to rebuild manufacturing in the United States.

Manufacturing employment is down under Donald Trump. Construction and building is down under Donald Trump. It's not an economy that's doing anything about building for the United States.

That brings us to the government shutdown that we're in right now, which Trump controls all branches of government. I mean, He runs it as he likes to, Bragg with an iron fist. But right now, he says, This one isn't me on this one, even though they're not even talking with Democrats, yet alone even negotiating. To me, I think what the American people see is like a fifth-grade student who learns about the government. No, it's like you're at least supposed to talk to each other. Trump's whole thing is, I don't need the other side when you do need the other side. Then he goes and does the whole thing, which was the election stuff, which is he goes, Look, the immigrants are taking your health care. It's transgender people from Peru who are doing this. They start with that. Then Marxists, communists are out there. I can't even find a threat. Maggie Mike Johnson is the worst. His Trump routine. He's trying to do a Trump, and he can't do it, and he looks angry and weird when he's doing the whole stick. The American people aren't buying it. They're like, No, I actually use ACA.

I use that. I need that.

Here's the thing that I keep repeating, and it drives me crazy. We are writing a $20 billion check to Argentina. No questions asked to bail out the President's friend, and 20 million Americans are losing their health care. Now, I don't know who thinks this is a good trade, but literally, we just completed under the Secretary of Treasury, $20 billion dollars, no reforms, nothing from Argentina. And this will be their umptenth bailout. We're going to give them $20 billion. And their farmers compete against our farmers for the Chinese market. They're going to get $20 billion. And $20 Americans are going to lose their health care support from the federal government. Now, that is not a good trade. I didn't realize that being an Argentinian was a benefit in the Trump administration and being an American is going to cost you your health care. But that's exactly what the Trump administration is doing.

Now, have you ever heard of this, an exclusive Air Force base for Qatar and like, Idaho? Did you hear this this morning? They're doing the Qatarian Emirati Air Force. I mean, look, alliances, strategic, whatever. But we're We're now naming our Air Force bases for the Qataris. With the straight...

What? Let me just say this. It's very hard to find a moment that an Emmanuel is speechless. I'm speechless. They need to have an airport to land the new plane they just gave them.

I'll give you one where I know you won't be speaking before we go. It's former mayor of Chicago.

I don't even know how to comment on this. It's just like, you've got to be... Who vetted this?

Wait, Are we going to... We got the Qatari Air Force, are we going to do the Crypto Arena, Whitehouse Wing? Are we going to do... I mean...

Yes.

We are. The new East Wing ballroom is brought to you by Palantier, whatever it is. I mean, that's where it's going. Before we go, you're former mayor of Chicago. I'm sure you have a lot of thoughts about a literal military invasion of your city and sending Texas National Guard troops into the city where you were the mayor. What's your views on all that?

Look, this is what's broken about our politics. I've opposed defunding the police. Stupid idea of fail policy. I oppose sending in the National Guard that somehow they're going to know Anglewood, Little Village, Back of the Yard, neighborhoods in the city of Chicago. Community policing is the answer. It's neither defund the police or National Guard, 500 of them in a city of 3 million. Community policing. Bro, it's crazy. On immigration, I think open borders was a mistake, and I also think declaring open warfare on American cities is a mistake. I'll give you one example of this. Last night on the way home to the airport, I stopped in my favorite Mexican restaurant, and a young woman there was near tears out of fear that coming from home to work, et cetera, and how that if something happened to her, who would know and how would they help her? The idea of getting criminal elements out of the country, you had everybody at YES. The idea that you're going to pick up people who are working, pick up people that are filing their papers and following the law at the courthouse. We are bringing a level of fear that is not only not correct, but doesn't solve the problem of immigration.

It requires leadership. We're a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws. You break the laws, we have to deal with that and enforce it and do it in an inappropriate way. We're also a nation that throughout our history has welcomed immigrants to the country. I'm a product of that. My dad came here, my grandfather and my mother's son. That's the country. If you look at major companies in the United States, as one example, and also all types of other professions, and you have immigrants from every part. So to me, open borders was wrong, and open warfare in America is wrong. And the American people know that, and that's why they've rejected Democrats from Republic alike and Independence, rejected what the President has done. In the same way, defunding the police is crazy, and calling out National Guard on American cities is crazy. It's about community policing. For the money you're spending sending the Texas National Guard up to Chicago, you could help the city of Chicago recruit permanently 500 police officers into the police Department help the city bring the type of public safety you need to Chicago or to Portland or to Boston.

Second, if you really wanted, everybody knows this who deals with the issue of crime, a mayor, a police superintendent, 3 or 4% of the city commit an overwhelming amount of the violent crime. Prosecute them. You have US attorneys. You have US attorney's office.

Sort of.

Sort of. But my point is, look, as someone When we're currently worked on crime, the strategy is about more police on the street getting kids, guns, and gangs off the street. It's a comprehensive approach from beginning to end. Invest in community policing, invest in after-school programs for kids so they're not on the street, prosecute the hardened criminals, and work hard at getting both them and the guns and the drugs that they use off the street. It requires coordination. If the President said to the mayors, not the target of cities, but the mayor, What do you need? How do we bring crime down? You would have a bill of goods, and they could partner. But I don't know if you know this, it was close to, I think it was $800 million. Cut in local assistance on public safety. So the President of the United States is now the author of defunding the police.

Except his own personal police force is high stages. Then there's $200 billion that goes to people roving around city with assault weapons out their window and spraying chemical agents here.

I make this other point, which is maybe because I'm a nerd. In a few months, the government must produce a national defense strategy. It's a document. It says this about China, it says this about Russia, it says this about weapons of mass destruction. It will say, What are the threats? If there's a section about American cities as the enemy within and that Now, it will be the first time that's ever been done. On the other hand, if it doesn't say it, then what we know is what the President is doing is not serious that the enemy within, as the Secretary of Defense and the President of the United States and the Commander-in-Chief has said. So the lie will be exposed. The idea that cities are the... And I say this as a former ambassador, we used to organize military exercises with Australia, Japan, India, coordination of efforts. China took note. If you're thinking you're going to practice in American cities, are you bringing Australian, Japanese, European militaries here to practice with the United States on our cities? I think this whole thing is not only performative, it's dangerous. The President of the United States is setting up not only a precedent, but also a trying to familiarize the American people that the military will be within the daily threads of our lives.

And that is not who we are. And he knows it. And the good news is, so do the American people.

So we leave with that with some hope. And I think the American people are getting it increasingly, although this is not the way I would have hoped we would have got our civics lessons through real world. Ambassador Emmanuel, appreciate you.

Thank you very much.

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