Transcript of What we know about plane crash in Kazakhstan and what happened

New this morning, at least 29 people have survived a fiery crash of a passenger plane in Central Asia. At least two of those survivors are children, but dozens of other people who are also on board are feared dead. We do want to warn you this next video, you may find disturbing. In it, you can see first responders and civilians rushing to help at the crash scene, bloody passengers emerging from the wreckage and the front portion of the plane missing. Cnn Nata Basheer is in London with the latest.

Well, Kate, the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was traveling from the Israeli capital, Bakhu, to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya. But it was forced to make an emergency landing around two miles from the Kazakhstan city of Aktau. Now, video circulating from eyewitness and those nearby the crash site shows that the plane was circling the airfield somewhat erratically before the crash, then bursting into flames as it hit the ground. Now, emergency response teams were quickly at the scene, and remarkably, there were a number of survivors, including at least two children, according to authorities, with video showing some of those injured emerging from the wreckage. But this is a moment of huge tragedy for those that did not survive. According to authorities, there were 67 people on board the flight, including five crew members. Preliminary reports, according to Russian Aviation authorities, suggests that the pilot was forced to attempt an emergency landing following a bird strike. However, investigations are still ongoing. Kate.

We're beginning this hour in Kazakhstan, where authorities now say at least 38 people are dead after an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed and burst into flames. Though there were 29 survivors, including two children, 11 are currently in critical condition. Now we have to warn you this next video showing dazed survivors pulled from the wreckage may be disturbing for some to watch..

In this video right here posted to social media, you can actually see the plane descending to the ground in what appears to be the moment of impact.

A Russian aviation watchdog says preliminary information suggests the pilot tried to make an emergency landing after a bird strike. Last hour, I spoke with CNN transport analyst, Mary Skiavo, about the new developments. Here's some of that conversation.

What I'm seeing is it has to be more than a bird strike because the plane did not have what's called pitch control. In other words, how many degrees up or down the nose is? How much is the nose pointed up or how much is it pointed down? So it obviously had some damage to the pitch control, which could be from the trim system, which helps the pilot keep the nose in the right place up or down or the elevator, which is in the back of the plane. So there had to be something additional going on. Also, there's unconfirmed reports that the pilot had done what's called squawking. In other words, you put your radio, you put your equipment, and it sends a certain signal, which is 7,700, that says you've got serious onboard problem. Then also, when looking at a publicly available flight radar system online, you can see that the pilot fought with this plane for some time before choosing to land it at another airport. This wasn't something that happened, and then the plane was brought down. For example, on landing, you get a flock of birds, and the altitude makes me wonder, would the birds been at that altitude?

But the pilot really fought. Pilots really fought this plane for some time, and then did a figure eight before landing. They did two circles and then tried to land. So it appeared that they were trying to gain control of this aircraft and really put quite a fight up on this Embrayera 190.

That's remarkable. Remarkable that you can, just by looking at some of that publicly available flight data, tell what that story may have been as it was playing out. Mary, though, at least 29 people, as far as we understand, survived this crash So that seems truly extraordinary.

Well, and it's reminiscent of other accidents that we've talked about here on CNN, or that I've worked as an aviation lawyer and doing investigations, and we see more and more crashes where people survive because of the safety features built into aircraft. There's more survivability, there's less flammability, the ability to get out. We have We've actually seen many crashes where the plane was completely destroyed, and in several cases, everyone got off, or in some cases, there were just a few deaths, including cart wheeling like this as the plane did when it came in. There are pictures circulating showing holes punctured in fuselage, and some people are saying, Well, that looks like bullet holes. Actually, in doing accident investigations, I can tell you that looks like damage from the explosion of the aircraft when it exploded on the ground. Those don't look like bullet holes to me on the pictures that are circulating around. Clearly, these pilots, there are two of them on this plane, could not get this nose up, which suggests you don't have pitch control, which is a feminism of other accidents. Even the 737 MAX 8 crashes in Indonesia and in Ethiopia. The final sequence looked very much like this, a dive into the ground.

Because there are many survivors which is fortunate, and because of the newer plane, that will have newer black boxes, flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, it'll have all the parameters. I think they will have their answer of what happened fairly soon. However, they may not have their answer very soon as to whether it was a bird strike or something else. There's lots of speculation. It might have been a drone, but they will have to carefully examine the plane, the engines, the windscreen. Ordinarily, birds take out your engine or engine And you have time to tell air traffic control. You have time to get a mayday call in. You have time to communicate and tell what happened.

And thanks again to Mary Skiava for that analysis.

We are tracking the aftermath of a fiery plane crash in Kazakhstan. Miraculously, authorities say 29 people, including two children, survived the disaster, but at least 38 others were killed. The flight was traveling from the capital of Bakhu to Southern Russia when it crashed near the city of Akhtar. Now. One witness said bloodied survivors emerged from the wreckage of the plane, which burst into flames as it hit the ground. An aviation watchdog says a bird strike may be to blame for the emergency, but the cause of the crash is still unknown. Former FAA Safety Inspector and CNN Safety Analyst, David Sussi, joins us now from Denver, Colorado. David, happy holidays to you. Thank you so much for taking the time to join us. Obviously, a tragedy here in this crash. Much is still unknown as the investigation has begun, but what do you make of what we do know? And do you think that a flock of birds could have been the factor here for the plane crash?

Well, I think it's way too early to make that determination as to what caused it or not. But the crash site and the movement of the aircraft does not indicate to me that it was a bird strike set or bird strikes or a flock of birds that caused the problem. The aircraft not only went up and down like with power issues, but it was going left and right. It was pretty much out of control for a good amount of time before the accident. So I'm not there with the bird strike yet, but it certainly is a tragedy, and it's a tragic accident to have had to experience that for these folks to come through that for 20 minutes to wait to see what's going to happen And then to have survivors is truly a miracle on Christmas Day.

Yeah, I was going to ask you about that. I would imagine extremely rare for a plane crash to have survivors, much less some 29 people, and looking at video from the site of the crash, some people actually just walking out of the plane. It appeared that the fortunate ones were sitting in the back. What do you make of that?

Well, this particular flight path and the nose down attitude of the aircraft when it hit the ground, it quickly broke in half. And so what happens is the energy, this is much like, like you said, it's very rare, but in the Sioux City accident, which is many years ago, the aircraft did something similar, which is where the tail breaks off of the aircraft. So all the energy from that impact is transferred and absorbed by the front part of the aircraft wings forward. The tail of the aircraft you can see in some of these videos is a long, long distance from where the initial impact site is, and that energy is all dissipated by the time it comes to rest, there are survivors, in this case, 22 survivors that were able to walk away from that tail section.

This is Azerbaijan Airlines. The last major episode that they experienced was in 2005 when AN 140 plane crashed shortly before takeoff, killing 18 passengers. It's known to have a pretty strong safety record flying in and out of the EU and meeting their standards there. It's an Embrayr 190 plane. What are investigators going to be looking at as they try to put the pieces together with the Blackbox in particular?

Well, as you said, Azerbaijan is one of the top safety airlines in the world, really. They've done a great job of keeping their safety record up. The next steps on this is because it's a modern aircraft, there will be flight recorders, there will be data recorders. Everything that needs to be recorded from that flight will be on there, and we'll be able to get some information out of there as soon as the investigation is concluded. But That would be the start. Of course, the first thing on any accident site you do is the safety of those survivors and the passengers there. Secondarily, you can see that there's the videos, a lot of people coming up to help and assist. There are a lot of hazards and dangers there. And you notice a lot of them are not wearing masks or don't have protective gear on. The safety of those folks is really important as well. So the managing the site is what they're focused on right now is to make sure that everyone's safe that is there and clearing that area out. The next steps of this is going to be continuing to make it secure and safe and then due respect to those folks who have passed in the accident, those have to be taken care of as well, respectfully.

Yeah. Later today, after the crash, the Azerbaijan prosecutor general's office said in a statement that it opened a criminal investigation. In terms of investigating how this happened, in addition to the black box, do you expect investigators to be perhaps speaking with surviving passengers, given how rare that was, just to get more insight into what happened, perhaps the moment before the plane actually crashed?

Yeah. The difficult thing about interviewing survivors is that the stories are going to be very, very different, and they can actually dissuade you from a certain investigation. So it's important the investigators look to the facts and keep it that way. With regard to the criminal investigation, and the folks in that region do see every aircraft accident as a criminal investigation. That's how they start it. In the FAA, we don't do that. We don't bring in the FBI or anybody else until we see other issues that have to do with other than the aircraft operations or the mechanics of it. So over there, that's not uncommon for them to to open it as a criminal investigation.

That is an important detail to note. David Sussi, thank you again for joining us. Really appreciate the time.

Of course. Thank you.

We begin this hour with that breaking news of a deadly plane crash and caused Kazakhstan. Authorities say at least 38 people are dead after an Azerbaijanian Airlines plane crashed and burst into flames earlier today. Studyingly, nearly half of those people on board, 29 people, survived, including two children children. Eleven are currently in critical condition. We have to warn you this next video showing dazed survivors pulled from the wreckage may be disturbing for some to watch.

. Just terrifying.

And in this video right here posted on social media, you can see the plane descending to the ground in what appears to be the moment of impact. Cnn Aviation Analyst and former NTSB Managing Director, Peter Goals, joins me now. First, Merry Christmas. Thank you for coming on this holiday to discuss this really scary event. Russia's aviation watchdog said that the preliminary information suggested the pilot had decided to make an emergency landing after a bird strike. You've seen the video now. What's your assessment?

Well, these planes, the Embryair, is a excellent aircraft with a strong safety record, and the Azure Burjan Airways has a good safety record. If it was a simple bird strike, losing one engine, that's really not a threatening situation. It's a challenge challenging one. But these planes are designed to fly on one engine. Pilots train one engine flight all the time. Something else happened and caused this terrible fatalities and this terrible accident. If it was an uncontained engine failure caused by a bird being ingested, you would see parts of the engine coming apart, perhaps impacting the aircraft, impacting the flight control systems, and that would be a very difficult situation. And I saw some indications of an uncontrolled, an uncontained failure in the tails videotape of the tail. There was some impact marks like shrapnel in the tail of the plane, which might have indicated that.

Peter, one of the things that stood out to me was, remarkably, at least 29 people actually survived this crash. What does that tell you about what happened here?

Well, But first of all, it tells you two things. One is that aviation safety has come a long way. And one of the strongest steps towards surviving these kinds of accidents is the requirement that seats be able to withstand impact of 16 Gs. That means that you're in your seat, you have a terrible wreck like this, you're not being thrown out, and you have the chance to walk away. That's just extraordinary. I think that's the real message from this accident.

I mean, truly remarkable. I learned that over the course of speaking with you and other experts, how much progress there has been on aviation safety. Curious, your thought on this, though, Peter. Would the US have any role in this crash investigation by any chance? Would it just depend on the nationalities of the victims here?

No, it goes beyond that, and it's a great question to ask. This investigation is guided by the International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO. There's a treaty of which Azerbaijan is a signator, and so is the United States. This aircraft had GE engines on it. The investigator in charge from Azure, Brazil, could ask for US involvement, and the US could request involvement because of that fact. And there's a cooperative approach to these investigations. The NTSB has a specific designated person who handles international accidents. And I think the US will be participating.

Peter, one more thing that I wanted to pick your brain on, just because we got some new video that I believe we're about to roll. Cnn has learned that oxygen masks were actually released before the crash. Knowing that, does that tell you anything more about what might have happened here?

Well, it may indicate, as I said, I'm leaning with just preliminary information towards some uncontained failure in the outboard engine, in which the engines are designed with titanium coweling to try and hold in if a rotor ruptures. These internal fan blades are going at 18,000 revolutions per minute. If they rupture, these can enter the fuselage and cause a depressurization, which could cause the mask to drop.

Peter Goals, thank you so much for breaking that all down. Again, just stunning video we continue to get in of this really horrific crash. But again, miraculously, many survivors from this crash. Peter, thank you, and have a good rest of your holiday.

Thank you.