Transcript of 'Urgency on the part of many players': Volker on Russia-Ukraine once Trump is back in White House

Joining us now is former US ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volcker, who was also the US Special Representative for Ukraine negotiations during the Trump administration. Thanks so much for being here with us.

Thank you.

It's a pleasure. I first want to begin with this unfolding situation in Syria, this advance, of course, appearing to take the Syrian army by surprise. I just first want to get your reaction to what we've seen develop over the last couple of days.

Well, it's a combination of many things. First off, I think Everyone in the world is trying to take advantage of our presidential transition. As we see the end of the Biden administration and President Trump coming in, President Trump, very likely to take a stronger approach toward Iran and to Islamist groups in the Middle East. So they are now striking out in order to establish the best position that they can at the end of the Biden administration. This happens at the same time that Russia is struggling in its war in Ukraine. It doesn't have enough forces or ammunition. It has withdrawn some forces from Syria, and this is something that the Islamists have decided to take advantage of.

Yeah, and as you know, Putin has been a longtime ally of Syria's President, and You note, again, that the Russian resources stretched very thin with this war in Ukraine. It sounds like you agree with the fact that that does play a role in all of this as well.

It certainly does. Putin has overextended his capabilities right now. As we saw earlier this year, they're not able to attack in Ukraine and defend Russian territory at the same time. That's why they lost part of the Korsk region. That's why they brought in North Korean soldiers to fight on their behalf because they can't move their forces from Eastern Ukraine. They have drawn down Russian forces that have been in other parts of the world, including in Syria, because they needed them in Ukraine. Now we're seeing that others are taking advantage of those Russian decisions. At the same time, we are seeing an urgency on the part of many players, whether it is Iran trying to shut down Hezbollah a little bit, whether it is these Islamists trying to take over more ground in Syria, whether it's Hamas releasing this video of a hostage, trying to get a deal with Israel, or whether it's Russia, despite their weaknesses, stepping up attacks in Ukraine and threatening nuclear use, all in order to try to position before Trump takes office.

And so you know that they are all trying to get the upper hand or make the most of this in between time before President-Elect Trump takes office. I'm curious how you see this playing out once he gets into office.

Well, I think in the Middle East, I think it's going to be much easier to discern. You're going to see a return to a policy of maximum pressure on Iran and holding Iran ran accountable for the actions of Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and an intolerance of Islamist terrorist groups, such as what we're seeing happen in Syria right now. So I think that part is clear, and they are all positioning, assuming that Trump will be tough on them. In the case of Russia, it's a little bit less clear. Russia is assuming that there's going to be pressure for some deal, so it wants to demonstrate as much strength as possible in this short period of time to try to position itself for the best deal that it can get. That may not actually work. They may be misreading Trump on this. I think the Trump team, and what we've seen from Keith Kellogg's writings, is that they understand that the cause of this war is Russia's ambitions, and that it's going to take a show of strength in order to convince Putin to actually end the war. So it may be that what we heard from President Zelenskyy this week about saying that they're ready for peace, they will accept that they can't take all of the territory back militarily now, but hold out for diplomatic solutions later, and in the meantime, gain credible security guarantees now through NATO membership.

That is actually shifting in a direction that really may be to Trump's favor. It may turn out in a way very different from what Putin is actually hoping for.

As you mentioned, Trump has named General Keith Kellogg, a special envoy to Ukraine. We know he's previously suggested freezing the war's front lines and creating a demilitarized zone. Do you anticipate that we're going to see something like that? And do you think that might be a fair starting place for negotiations?

Yeah, I do, actually. If you look at the situation that Putin is in, his economy is coming apart right now. They have inflation over 25 %, and they're printing rubels, so that inflation is going to increase. Interest rates are already over 21 %. They're having difficulty getting components. The rubble is crashing, so he knows he's in trouble economically and also militarily because he doesn't have the troops that he needs. He relies on North Korea for artillery shells, relies on Iran for drones. So Putin is actually ready to pause this war. I think Zelenskyy is also ready to do that. So I think there will be a short term end of fighting. The trick is to turn that into a permanent peace. And that is where I think Zelenskyy's ideas of bringing in NATO membership and perhaps even European NATO members to have troops inside Ukraine as a deterrent to further Russian aggression. This may be what is necessary, and I think it could actually play out, and indeed, play out fairly quickly in the new year.

Because it would seem to me that there has to be a way to deter Russia from turning around and invading again, right?

Absolutely, yes. That is the thing to watch out for. If we just stop the war in and do nothing else, then that's exactly what Putin will do. He will regroup, he will try to undermine Ukraine from hybrid attacks inside and rebuild his military forces for further attacks later. This is why you need something like NATO membership and the presence of some European NATO forces in Ukraine as a deterrent so that Russia is deterred from attacking the rest of Ukraine, just as he is currently deterred from attacking NATO members.

To that end, President Zelensky has said an offer of NATO membership would put it into what he's called this hot stage of the war, and he's pushing for an invite that includes keeping all Ukrainian land. Do you think that could be potentially realistic?

I do. I think it is. As long as we maintain the idea that there is a dispute over parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies, just as we had West Germany join NATO and East Germany occupied or controlled by the Soviet Union or the Baltic States occupied by the Soviet Union for 40 years. We could see a situation where we disagree with Russia's occupation of parts of Ukraine, but we can move on and the rest of Ukraine is stable and secure. This is the thing that I think actually could happen.

We know that Russia has been escalating these attacks. You're talking about making the most of this moment, trying to show that strength. They've also said that it's in response to the use of these US-made weapons. In a Russian strike this week, more than a million homes were left without power. Do you think this ability for Ukraine to now use these long-range weapons, is that the right call? Is it worth these consequences?

It is absolutely the right call, and it should have been done a long time ago. The Biden administration invented these restrictions on range. There was no reason to have done that. International law only requires that a country has a right to defend itself, so Ukraine fits of that category, and that they only hit military targets rather than civilian. No one's talking about range. And by allowing Russia to attack Ukraine from a great distance and restricting Ukraine from hitting back, that was a nonsensical decision that should that has long ago been reversed. Russia is, of course, trying to capitalize on that reversal by claiming that it is some new affront. But we shouldn't pay too much attention to what Russia propaganda is. Russia is throwing everything they've got at Ukraine in this right now, and they need to be stopped, and I think they are prepared to be stopped.

I also want to ask you about the protests that we're seeing in Georgia. We're now on the third night of these protests in response to the government's decision to halt the former Soviet Union country's bid to join the European Union. What do you make of these protests, and what do you make of this just this situation, writ large?

Well, this is very important that you ask about this, because Russia is fighting a hot war in Ukraine, but it is trying to flip the Georgian government to get it to break away from the EU and be part of Russia's orbit again, all part of Putin's strategy of rebuilding the Russian Empire. The Georgian people have come out in the streets massively to protest the government's announcement that it is suspending its efforts to get into the European Union, at least until 2028. The government is now cracking down with all all forms of protest control, water cannons, and beating up protesters and so forth. So this is now right on edge. And it is critical that even though we are in a presidential transition, we need to be making some very clear statements about our interests in this, which is that there be respect for constitutional democratic practices, full support for the President of Georgia, who, as the Commander-in-Chief and as the President as the President of the country, has refused to recognize these elections and the seeding of this Georgian government, sanctions on individuals in Georgia who are leading this crackdown against the Georgian people. Now is the time for swift action, because I think the fate of Georgia is going to be decided in the next several days or weeks.