Transcript of ‘A very significant hit’: Ex-defense secretary on Israel’s potential retaliation toward Iran

Anticipation building for how and when Israel may retaliate for Iran's missile attack this week. Top US State Department official tells CNN, Israel has given no assurances that targeting Iran's nuclear facilities is off the table. President Biden today said Israel was not going to make a decision immediately. He also said that Israel shouldn't strike Iran's oil fields either. In three days, Israel in the world will mark one year since the October seventh terror attack. The same State Department source says it is, quote, really hard to tell if Israel will use that day to retaliate for the missile attack. I'm joined now by former Defense Secretary, Mark Esper. Secretary Esper, what form do you think Israel's retaliation against Iran will take? They had a symbolic strike the last time in April to respond to the Iranian attack. Then, what do you expect now?

Yeah, well, first of all, good evening, Anderson. Look, it'll be a significant strike, and the first question will be, what do they want to achieve? If they want to go after regime change, then I think they'll go into Iran and they'll go after the Ayatollah Hamaneh, they'll go after President Pzezechkian, and they'll go after the IRGC. Then on top of that, they'd want to knock out all the command and control communications that whatever survives that would be able to communicate with the rest of the regime. If they want to go after military capabilities, then you would look at strategic assets like the nuclear sites that are just south of of Tehran and places like Fordouh and Iraq and stuff like that. The danger, of course, is that you have to go deep into the territory and you may lose a pilot. Same thing as if you go up north to Tehran. The other challenge, by the way, with going after regime change, the downside is you risk civilian casualties. What you don't want to do is to have the Iranian people rally around that regime, particularly since it's so fragile right now and they are really not happy with the Iranian regime.

The other set of military targets would be, of course, ballistic missile production sites, storage sites, drone production sites, things like that. I think they will take out air defense regardless. That'll be the way by which they clear the path. But I think the third big group of targeting Anderson are economic targets. We've talked about the 12 to 14 facilities involved in oil refining and manufacturing and distribution, and some are right there on the Gulf Coast.

And those are easier targets with much less risk. I'm sorry? Those are easier to hit.

Much easier with less risk to Israeli pilots.

Just in terms of Israel's capability with the war in Gaza, the situation happening in Lebanon and Iran, are they capable of maintaining a kinetic situation like that?

I suspect they are, and certainly with the United States help, because we would need to be there to support them in different ways. Of course, the production of the munitions and other means would be critical. Depending on the operation, there are some things they need our assistance on, but I believe they will. I suppose they've been preparing this for a long time. Look, this is quite a change in a strategic situation. We haven't seen this ever, really. But the simple fact that Hamas is now on its knees, it's nearly decimated 22 of the 24 battalions have been knocked down and most of its leadership. Hezbollah is on the ropes with all of its leadership gone. That was really always the counterpunch, the right hook that Iran had in its back pocket in case Israel ever attacked Iran, and now they're gone. So What does Iran have left to respond with if Israel hits back really hard? Another salvo of ballistic missiles.

Is Hezbollah really gone? I think that Israel has said that they've knocked out about half of the missile capabilities of Hezbollah. They've obviously decapitated the leadership. But in terms of fighters on the ground in the south, I went out in 2006 on an operation with the IDF in Southern Lebanon, and it was really tough. I mean, once exchanging rocket fires, one thing, knocking out rockets, but actually going on the ground in Southern Lebanon, that's a very, very difficult theater.

Yeah, I know you're right, Anderson. I don't want to overstate it. I said they're on the ropes at this point in time. We know that the command and control has been decimated. The leadership has been knocked out. I mean, they still haven't announced Hassan Nizrala's replacement, let alone buried him. That said, they still have 20 to 50,000 fighters out there. They have, if Israel's numbers are accurate, half of their missile and rocket inventory left, which could number 70 or 80,000, if that's accurate. That said, I don't think they're trying to do with Hezbollah what they've done with Hamas. My sense is what they want to do is get rid of the infrastructure along the border. That's the tunnels, the fighting positions from which they're shooting directly into Israeli villages and communities. Then they also want to knock out as much of that missile capacity as possible. Then third, they want to push them back to the Latani River, up to the north, 18 miles, and get them in compliance with UN Resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 war, but was never followed through by Hezbollah. I think if they can accomplish those three things, then I think that'll be successful with them.

That's my sense.

How much do you think the political situation that Netanyahu is in, the legal political situation he's in, his need to maintain this coalition that he has with far-right elements in Israel, is driving the military situation?

It's interesting. We mustn't forget that there There are still hostages being held by Hamas somewhere upwards of 90 or so living in dead. They're still out there and the families are still grieving for them. A well over a majority of Israelis want those hostages back. But at the same time, well over a majority of Israelis want to end Hamas, want to end Hezbollah by very large numbers. As you know, 60 to 70,000 Israelis are displaced from their homes in the north for nearly a year now, coming on Monday. And so people want to see this problem go away. And look, as I've been saying since October seventh, last year, at the end of the day, all roads lead back to Iran. We have to deal with Iran. They have to deal with Iran, which is why I think it's going to be a very significant hit against Iran, against the regime.

Marquesper, I appreciate your time.