Transcript of How long range missiles striking inside Russia will change the Ukraine war | BBC News

It comes late. Some say too late, but Joe Biden's decision to greenlight the use of the US Army's tactical missile system, otherwise known as the TAKAMs, for targeting inside Russia will be welcomed by Ukraine and its European partners. It's a much-needed morale boost after several days of heavy bombardment, much of it aimed at the Ukrainian power grid. The question, of course, is what difference will it make given the short period of time there is left before the incoming US administration, presumably withdraws that support. With us in the studio, our expert-in-chief, Mikey Kay. He flew attack helicopters for 20 years. He served as a military planner, and he presents this segment as he would do to his commanding officers. How are you, sir?

Very good. Welcome back.

Thank you very much. Yes, it's been a while. Let's get into this decision. Why now? Why has he taken this decision? Some would say belatedly, but certainly it appears timely.

Yeah, I think there are many people in policy decisions around the world that would argue this has come late in the day. I think Zelensky would argue that he's been trying to defend Ukraine with one arm tied behind his back. But as we spoke about a couple of weeks ago, one of the main trigger mechanisms that has instigated all of this is the introduction of North Korean troops inside Russia. We can go slide, please. One One of the most important areas of military capability at the moment is in the Kersk region. A couple of weeks ago when we were reporting about this, information was telling us that there were going to be probably anything up to 8,000 to 10,000 DPRK troops. Well, two weeks later, not only are there 8,000 to 10,000 DPRK troops in the Kersk region, there is about 50,000 combined Russian troops who are involved in that area, and that's certainly been one trigger mechanism.

Okay. What does the did the ATACOM give them that they didn't previously have?

Well, they've had attack them for a long time. They've had medium-range attack them that were delivered at the end of 2023. But more importantly, they've now been given long-range attack them in April of this year, which gives them a significant capability when it comes to launching long-range missiles inside Russian territory. I think what's important at this point is certainly the information that we've got so far, Christian, is that the approval to use ATACOMs by Zelenski is specific to the Kersk area. It's not a wide-ranging blanket to be able to use wherever he wants. So for example, in the Crimea region. So it's specific at the moment to the Kursk region. And if we can Can we go to slide, please. We've got some video footage here of ATACOMs missiles being used. What's important here is you've seen this missile on media all day. The other important bit about this is the high miles launcher. Now, the high miles launcher can have a number of different rockets and missiles inside there, and it's highly maneuverable, which means it's harder to take out by the Russians. It's a combined capability.

How fast is that going?

It's got a range of 190 miles.

It's not hypersonic?

No, hypersonic is Mach 5 plus. This has a speed of about Mach 3, which is around 2,600 miles an hour, which makes it really hard to target for many air defense capability on the Russian side. It's harder to stop. Definitely harder to stop. It's very maneuverable. It's launched from a system that is incredibly maneuverable. And if we go back to... Slide, please. If we go back to the rangers slide, we can see that the missile basically has an effect area out to 190 miles, which is greater than any missile system that Ukraine have at the moment.

You can see Kershka up there on the northeast corner of Ukraine, where this is where the Ukraine troops are. You can see further south, there are other more desirable targets that the Ukrainians would want to use them.

Yeah, 100%. So Zalinsky has basically been predicating the whole use of attackums on the victory plan, which I would argue now is becoming more of a get yourself into a good negotiating position plan than a victory plan. But anything from command and control, air defense systems, airfields, anything that would allow Zalinsky to degrade and deter whatever Russia has. You asked the question at the beginning about why now Kursk is one region, but we also saw one of the largest attacks by Russia on Ukraine this weekend, 120 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and 90 drones that came with that. Now, a lot of that was taken out. But if those threats come from the Black Sea region, for example, Attakums will be an absolutely critical asset in order to take some of those threats out. Now, what can the UK support the Ukraine with. Well, they have been supporting Ukraine with the Stormshadow Cruise missile. If we can go slide, please. Stormshadow Cruise missile. This is a GR4 British jet. It's a one-salvo missile, which obviously is required to be launched from a jet, and a jet needs a runway. France are supporting with a similar capability called Scalpe.

It's exactly the same missile.

Can they fit that to the MiG?

Yes, they can. What the project management teams did is that they very quickly allowed the Storm Shadow and the Scalp to be fitted to the MiG-29 and the SU-27, which is what the Ukrainians basically uses.

They have the air platforms to deliver it.

Yeah, they absolutely do. It's got 155-mile range, 400 kilogram warhead. It's subsonic It travels at 600 miles an hour. But this is, again, critical for Zelenskiy to be able to mobilize, use a Takums, use Stormshadow, use Scalp in order to hit deeper range.

Just so our audience knows, it's the same missile, Different names, Stormshadow, Scalp, same missile. Yeah.

The Brits use Stormshadow, the French use Scalp. It's a joint venture. It's an Anglo-French venture. Why do they need the US permission to green light the use of that missile, of those two missiles? I think that's more of the US is the biggest funder of NATO. The US has been the biggest funder of Ukraine. I think there's definitely an argument to show a consistent and solidified approach to this deep strike capability. I think the trigger mechanisms that we've just spoken about are there now.

Just very quickly before we move on, they've talked about replenishing the Ukrainians, and obviously it comes back to our capability. I know it will be a sensitive, perhaps even it will be confidential how many of these storm shadows we have, but what do we have to replace it? Because that's always the big question.

Yeah, that's literally just recently in the last week, there's been information about new trials coming out on what's called the Spear, which is effectively a mini-cruise missile. It's specifically designed for the F-35B lightning, and it can fit eight of them on that. It doesn't have the range. It's got about 100 km range, whereas storm shadows look at you more about 250 km. But in terms of the The technical capability of Spear in terms of the warhead, in terms of the scanner that it uses, GPS coordinates. It's an absolutely potent missile that I don't think Ukraine will be getting anytime soon. But what it does allow the Brits to do in the UK to do is obviously provide more storm shadow because they're reinforcing capability on the F-35 of Spear.

We'll maybe talk in the next half hour about the pressure that this puts on the Germans. Again, I note tonight that the German side have said that they're not inclined to send tours. The German Chancellor doubling down on that, on his resistance to that. What about your oppo in Moscow, who's planning maybe for an offensive in Kershk right now? Now that they have the attack, how does that change his coa, his course of action?

Significantly. The course of action that they will now take in terms of using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, where they're going to place their command and control, where they're going to formulate all of the troops. There's 50,000 now, that's likely to get more. All of this now changes. The attack comes now changes where they put that capability, but also the logistical resupply. The logistics is so important. You remember the beginning of the war when they went into Kiev? They were absolutely decimated by the logistical resupply. And so, Atakums will allow Zelenski to be able to start targeting the logistical resupply routes that come into the Kersk region, which will obviously cut them off. So that's huge.