Transcript of Week 4 Picks vs. The Spread

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good one-sided rivalry. I'm Greg Rosenthal in Studio 5 at NFL Network with one of my favorite people at the company in the world. It's Cynthia Freeland. Yes, we are back picking games against the spread, man versus model, your computer model. We're both four and five on the season, Cynthia. I went two and one last week. You went one and two. We're forgetting about the past. It's been a tough season. It's been unpredictable. We look forward. I'm going to kick us off here and see if we're on the same page. Yeah. Let's go Seahawks plus 3.5 to start it off against your lions. I'm not doing this as a personal attack.

I don't take it as that.

I'm doing it as a bit of history. I mentioned it off the top, like a one-sided rivalry. You wouldn't I don't think that this is such a one-sided rivalry, but it is. What did you say on game day view? They haven't beaten them since 2012? That is outrageous. I know that that has nothing to do with this particular matchup.

Dagger in my heart.

But Gino Smith and the Seahawks have won in a couple of score fests against Dan Campbell's team. Again, it's different coaching staff, so I don't think that tells us that much. But the injury situation for the lines is worrisome to me. I think the Seahawks have a good chance to win this game straight up. If you look at Gino Smith versus Man coverage this year, outstanding. 73% completion percentage. Who plays almost more man coverage than anyone in the league? It's the Detroit Lion.

Only one team plays more man coverage than the lines. Just so you know. There we go.

46%. Wait, you're with me on this? Yeah. You're with me like, this is going to be one of your three picks?

This is one of my three picks. Yeah, we are aligned.

Okay, so why do you like the Seahawks against your team, other than you're emotionally hedging, I think?

I'm definitely emotionally hedging, but it only works if your math also works for this whole man versus model thing. The model actually has that as one of the highest outputs as well, even though I have the lions winning in the straight up version of the equation. Here's the reason. Number one, Frank Ragnal. Number two, Marcus Davenport. Number three, Derek Barnes. Number four, is Sam Laporte playing? Number five, keep going I did this interview for it because it is a mile long and that is a problem. But the Frank Ragnal one specifically is massive because you haven't even seen Jared Goff be as good with play action this season, and he's had the best run success rate in the league. If you're really good at running, but play action isn't working for you and you don't have your great center, it is a gnarly ride. I do think there's going to be more than 46.5 points in this game. You're just throwing that one out of there. That one's like, you put in your little note card.

I got the extra pics for my notes.

We will get to that later. The extra pics, will you put mine on there? I will. This is going to be a scorefest situation because I do think there are some tricks. Ben Johnson, this is like, maybe this is how he gets a job, right? Mike McDonald got his job. That lines game last year, Mike McDonald, that That was one of the reasons he got the game. So now it's Ben Johnson's turn, even though I don't ever want him to leave.

I love that you mentioned that. Look, Mike McDonald had a game plan that made Jared Goff in this Detroit lines offense look worse than ever a year ago. Frank Ragnou, their center, the on-off splits are crazy. I know this is in basketball or hockey, but when Frank Ragnou did not play last year, their offense was just not the same. He has a lot of responsibility. It's One of the reasons why I think Jared Goff has played so well in Detroit, why Derek Carr, I think, is off to a good start in New Orleans. He took a little bit off his plate, and you have a great center in Frank Ragnou, usually, who makes so many of the protection calls and does such a good job. It's just not the same. And yeah, this Seattle defense, it's a prove it game because they've played three bad offenses in a row. But ultimately, I love the way they're playing up front. I think their cornerbacks are outstanding. Maybe there's some vulnerability in the middle of the field, and that's why it's going to be a close game. But three and a half points in a game, I think Detroit has a chance to win.

I love it. I love that we're on the same side, by the way, because last week we went against each other. I won. It was the Colts, but it was a weird game.

By the way, Ken Walker, if he plays, he went to Michigan State. There's this emotional That's going to be a problem for the lines, even though they've been good at stopping the run. But remember, I told you all those linebackers are out. But this could be like a Kenneth Walker, Ken Walker, whatever you want to call him. This could be like a, Hey, you guys up there in East Lansing, drive the 70 miles Southeast to Detroit.

This could be a problem. I'm glad you mentioned that because look, the Seahawks are not a perfect team. They have not been run blocking well. They've not really been pass blocking well other than their left tackle. And so that could be problematic against lines.

Left tackle, great. Right tackle, that's going to be a problem against Aiden Hudgens.

Yeah, Aiden Hudgens. They just move them to wherever the problem is, that's the smart way to do things. The one thing Teddy Walker can do though.

Stone foresight. That guy sounds like he should be awesome, but he's allowed the highest pressure rate on their own.

He sounds like Carsten Steele, like an adult entertainer, I think. Do you think they know each other? He joins that group. So I love that we're aligned on this. Okay, we're aligned.

Trust us.

If Man versus Model is to be trusted this year, we need the Seahawks plus three and a half. Give me your second pick.

Okay, so this is my second pick now. I just want to make sure that we're staying aligned here. The Saints plus one and a half points. I have the Saints winning, straight up winning. So if you're going to give me them plus a point and a half, I'm really going to like this. Okay, I understand there's recency bias along with some of these lines where last week you saw the Eagles shut them down and they're away, et cetera, et cetera. But number one, The Saints have the best NFC road divisional rate, so 14 games to four. I understand some of that is Sean Payton or Drew Bees, but don't worry about it. We can deal with those details later.

But you know what, Dennis Allen, to be fair, Dennis Allen was on all those staffs, shut down pretty good Falcon's offenses.

Exactly. But the Falcon's defense doesn't have the same horses that the Eagles defense has in order to not just stop the outside zone run, but also get those pressures up the gut that really bother Derek Carr. So they don't have the personnel to do that. Matt Judon is the only guy that's really getting any pressure, and that does not an entire outside zone running and Derek They are stopping Team Make. They just don't have enough horses to be able to stop them.

Yeah, I think you look at their linebackers, Troy Anderson. I mean, Caden Ellis is a good player. He used to be on the Saints and stuff, but they're a team I think you can push around a little bit. I'm with you. It's really funny you picked them because they were on my list, and I was really debating whether they should be my third pick or not. I'm good. They're going to be my extra pick. We're aligned. We're aligned. But I don't want to be too aligned. But man versus model, it's more like man and model this week. So we love the Saints plus one and a half.

Do you think this is a Ryan Nielson revenge game? I know he's at the Jags now, right? But they both had him at certain points. So this Saints defense, that was two teams ago, and this Falcon's defense.

So I was like, he's not even there. There is a lot of intermixing. Terry Fontanos in the front office. Oh, yeah. Terry Fontanos is the GM. David on Yamada is there.

Those two are like, shuffled up.

Kate and Ellis. Yeah, I just love this rivalry. But I think if you just were soberly looking at the first three weeks of play and the data-I'd rather look at it drunk. Right. Going into the season, we thought these teams were roughly equal. At least I did. Then, yeah, it doesn't surprise me that the model spits out a road victory. If you look at DVOA, which I really respect as a one-size-fits-all metric. The Saints are second so far, and the Falcons are 17th because the Saints have played three good opponents. Maybe not three good opponents, obviously, with the Panthers, but three really high quality games where you blow two teams out, you lose a close game against the Eagles. I'm with you. All right, my second pick. This is the one I felt most strong here.

Second most strongly about?

Commanders, Cardinals. Not the winner. I do like the Cardinals. If I I had to pick one minus three and a half, but I don't feel crazy about that. But I like the over. I believe it's 50 and a half right now or 50 depending on where you're looking. I believe that this is the worst defense in the NFL in Washington. They can't cover anyone. They try to play man coverage. They're putting Sanra still out there on an island against Jamar Chase because they don't have any other options. This is a kid who's a rookie that maybe should be playing in the slot or maybe shouldn't be playing at all. They just don't have players. Dan Quinn is suddenly going for every fourth down because he knows he doesn't have a defense. Pick a defensive stat that exists in the world.

Just pick one. Touchdowns a lot in the past game.

The commanders are terrible at it. How about rushing efficiency? How about yards allowed per drive, points allowed per drive? You pick any defensive stat that you want. The commanders are the very worst in the league at it. I think this is going to be one of those Kyler Murray seasons where fantasy-wise, maybe even MVP-race-wise, he destroys in some matchups where, yeah, he's going to have some weeks against good defenses where he struggles, but he has those weeks where it's like the five-touchdown weeks, the 80 rushing yards, 250 passing yards weeks, and I think that's it. Now, we saw on the other side of the ball, Jaden Daniels, he's going to get his Kyler Murray, I mean, Cliff Kingsbury is setting up wide open. Receivers for him. He's hit and throws down the field. I don't think Arizona is that great either defensively. I project like over 60. I mean, I know no I know the model would do that, but I like 33 to 31, so I think it goes way over 50.

If I were picking on my gut, I would actually agree with you. But the model has something different, primarily because of something that you hit on for both sides, the run game, the rushing efficiencies for both teams, not just the quarterback, but also the runningbacks, the main runningbacks for each team. That slows pace down. Sometimes when you have those slow paces or when you take that fourth down, that's like a roll of the dice. If you go for it on fourth down, you don't punt it, then it all changes.

These two teams are crazy, though. They are crazy. That'll make sense, and that's why, statistically, I get it. But you look at week one-I'm with you gut-wise, but I don't pick-week one, Bill's Cardinals. It was all these slow drives, but they still got to 34 to 28. You look at Commander's bengals last week, sometimes it was those slow drives, and it was 37, 33. You're right, you don't usually score every time.

No, but that's why it's the drive, the time per drive. Typically, you aren't getting six points per drive, seven points per drive, eight points per drive.

This game is what we need, though. This is the antidote to the low scoring Marine, NFL, Commanders, Cardinals, over. That is my second pick. All right, wrap your picks up, your third pick.

I think we're going to be on the opposite side of this one, but I have Minnesota, and I have Minnesota winning outright. If you're going to also give me two and a half points, then I'm going to really, really like this. I watched that defense. We talked about this last week. C. J. Stroud, you can't blitz him. You know why? He's great against the blitz. Turns out they blitz him 50% of the time. They had the most pressures last week. 23 total pressures, 13 came when they were blitzing, 10 came when they weren't blitzing, you know how many sacks they had? Five. You know how many came without blitzing? Three. And then two when they were blitzing. That's a good sign. It's a really good sign because a lot of times in football, we can identify what another team's weakness is. But how to adapt without losing your identity is a really tricky thing to do. Brian Flores and this Minnesota defense, they absolutely pulled that off against the Texans. I think this is an interesting one at Lambo Field. Understand there are some parameters that are different. We have a little bit of a question mark at the quarterback position, so they're going to have to adjust.

It's a big deal, though, isn't it? Jordan Love, Malik Willis, that's a big difference to me. I'm going to pick straight up. I don't feel confident in this game, no matter who's the quarterback. I don't feel confident in this game, just generally. But I would take Jordan Love if they're starting, and I wouldn't otherwise.

I would take I can read in fantasy if Jordan loves starting, but I wouldn't take them either way under either condition, which is why it's one of my favorite ones, because I don't think that there's enough horsepower there, especially when you factor in that the packers defense is a roller coaster. They have the most interceptions. They have seven interceptions, but they also allow the second most yards after the catch over expected. So you're either running on them or they're completely turning the ball over. If that isn't a home run swing or home run, strike out.

I don't know what is. I struggled with this one. The packers even have been playing better lately, but it's been against Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. I just went with like, Man, if going into the season, packers are only two and a half point favorites against the Vikings, I know the Vikings defense This has shown to be a level that we could not expect. But what about Sam Darnold? But coaching, to me, it's a rare case where Kevin O'Neill is not a coaching advantage. It's even because it's too great.

You know what we didn't bring up? What? Aaron Jones revenge. Okay.

Aaron Jones revenge. Aaron Jones is awesome, but- Aaron Jones is going to get so much revenge twice in the end zone.

It's all about Aaron Jones revenge.

Aaron Jones doesn't want revenge. He wrote a nice piece.

Can you just tell me to relax? That's so like Aaron Rodgers of you.

I'm just saying Aaron Jones is one of my favorite in the league, top five in success rate, one of my favorite runningbacks. But the packers, their running game is among the best in the league, too. Everyone won with that one. I hope you win with that one because I'm not going to go against you here or even on my extra ones. That one, to me, was just a question mark. You helped make up my mind for my third pick, because you picked Saints, and I was struggling with it. I'm going to go Texans minus 6.5. Now, I've seen it at 6.5 or 7, but as we are going to tape, I see some 6.5s out there, so that's a big difference. You want to get the 6.5 if you But either way, I'm going Texans. They're coming off a game against the Vikings.I'm.

Putting your points up here.Yeah.Yup..

They're going up a game against the Vikings, which was humbling for them. I believe them to be a Super Bowl contender, a very solid week-to-week defense who's going to get after the poor sister's offenses in the league, of which I can include the Jaguars as one. So a bad offensive line, an offense with no confidence. And this is something I was going to I'm going to mention about Washington, too, which is why I do like Arizona in that game. Going on the road again on a short week, the numbers for that against the spread are not good. If you're on the road on Monday night and then you're on the road again in a short week, even if you did well on the Monday night with Jacksonville, very much did not. That's just a disadvantage that you don't want to have. Yes, it's a division game, so there's some familiarity there, but the Texans, to me, are just a class above. I do like teams that I believe be real deal contenders coming off losses. I do think there's an emotional and mental focus aspect. Then I look at the matchups. Yes, Jacksonville might get a cornerback or two back this week, Darnell Savage and or Jerrion Jones, but that's still a mismatch against Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs.

We'll see if Tankdell is out there. I like the mismatch on that side of the ball, and then on the other side of the ball. I really do trust this Texans defense and what Demeco Ryan is cooking up. Overall, it is a lot of points, but the The Jaguars, to me, are a bottom five team in the NFL against, let's say, a top eight team. That's not too many points for me.

They lead the league in pressure rate. Let's go. That's the Houston Texans, of course. When I'm looking at the opportunity that they have from last year, and you talk about a very good team, what did they do after a win? Well, if you look at last year, I mean, C. J. Stroud is five and one in those situations. Let's go. That's another fact there. They are a good team. Things happen throughout the course of the season. I think on game day view, you were This team is better. I picked them for the Super Bowl, but I don't have them winning every game. That was the bills this week. I wasn't going to give it away. You can't give it away.

They got to watch the show. It's fine. It's two different mediums. It's okay. Let's give our man versus model a listen.

Okay, but the point is that even good teams don't win every single game. I'm with you, though. It's how you rebound. It's what you make of it. If you are a fantasy player, just watch that little cue. There's a cue on Nico Collins status. Just watch that. It doesn't change anything. Let's go Dalton Schultz, I think that'll be a good opportunity if there's no Nico Collins. Okay. And of course, Stefan Dix.

For the review, we're both on the Seahawks plus three and a half. I also agree with you that the Saints plus one and a half is a good one, but that's not one of my picks. That is your second pick, and your final pick is Vikings plus two and a half. I am taking the Texans minus six and a half. I agree with you on the Seahawks, and I'm also going over Commanders and Cards. You mentioned the note card. Everyone's talking about it.

Everyone is, you know what? People stop me on the street. They're like, Can you give me a picture of Greg's note card?

The country is talking about it. They're like, Why is Greg four and five with his main pics? But the note card pics- Why won't Greg tell you the note card, Cynthia? We went back and, I think, checked out the note card record for the season. I think it's 9 and 3 or 8 and 3. I got to go check week one.

There's like a divine intervention that comes into your hand.

I didn't feel as confident this week. That might be a reflection of the pics not going that well overall this year. But on the note card has even great. I only have two for you this week. The Saints, I'm with you. Plus one and a half. Then I also like the Titans plus one and a half in Miami. We don't know who the starting quarterback is in Miami. Snoop Huntley would make me slightly more afraid. But when I watch the Dolphins at a week to week basis, I think they're the worst team in the NFL. I think they had major problems with Tua Tunga Tua Tuna-Vailoa. Again, DVOA, they're 32, so that matches my eye test. Like the Titans, they have a decent defense. They're 25, 26. I think that's enough of a gap, and some of that data is with Tua Tunga-Vailoa as their quarterback, and they're still 32nd. I think it's enough that their offensive line, I just don't trust them to win any game right now. I think the Titans get their first win of the season, and I know your model agreed with me on that one.

Yeah, model agrees with you on that. The one thing that I do want to point out about the Titans that maybe people are forgetting, I don't know if they're forgetting or not, Calvin Ridley's ability to score touch downs, turns out, hasn't gone anywhere. I'm looking at this game, and if you're looking for a touch down score in this matchup, it looks really good.

I like that. You know what? Nuke Hopkins returned last week, and he looked fantastic.

He's one of my all-time favorite players. It was like a vintage, like snatched, blue. It's just vintage.

I loved it. Physical, making plays despite not being that open.

Body control, ridiculous. He's one of my all-time favorites.

All right, that's what Cynthia does. Check out her YouTube every week, Numbers Game, Man versus Model. Obviously, we will be back next week to tell you about how being on the same side of these pics really paid off. But yeah, you should check out if you want more Cynthia, Numbers Game. It's outstanding. We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday night. It's our flagship big show of the week with Patrick Claibon and nick Shook recapping all the games. Until then, football is back. It's been back. It'll never not be back.