Donald Trump is heading back to the White House. Together we can truly make America great again. We are in for an unpredictable but fascinating four years. We're going to be following every twist and turn for the first 100 days. We'll be bringing you the latest updates and analysis first thing every morning. Join me, James McHew. Me, Martha Kalnett. And me, Mark Stone for Trump 100 every weekday at 6: 00 AM, wherever you get your podcast.
Hello, good morning, and welcome to the Morning podcast from Politico and Sky News.
It gives you everything you need to know about the day ahead in British politics in under 20 minutes. If you threaten us with 20% tariffs, we'll tell you anything you want to hear a lot quicker than that.
I'm a tariff free zone, incredibly good value. But are you auditioning to be a world leader? I'm Anne McHellvoy of Politico, and with me is Sam Coates of Sky News. It's Tuesday, February the fourth. The Prime Minister is waking up overseas. Later, he's headed to dinner with one of Donald Trump's least favorite Europeans, Metta Fredrickson of Denmark, which, conveniently for Donald Trump, regards Greenland as a district of Denmark.
How could he? Meanwhile, the global diplomatic shootout continued overnight. Just in case you made the mistake of sleeping, President Trump decided again slapping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, so a reprieve for them, but pressed ahead with imposing them on China, who have just retaliated in the last few minutes by putting imports on American gas, coal, oil, and farming equipment, and announced a competition inquiry by the Chinese authorities into Google.
What could possibly go wrong. Arguably, the best thing happening behind the scenes today is that the Treasury will find out how bad the public finances really are. Remember, Rachel Reeves, in the October budget left 9 billion in headroom before she hit her self proposed borrowing targets, the fiscal rules. Since then, borrowing costs have gone up, and we're watching to see if that's wiped out, and she has to squeeze spending in future budgets to make those sums add up.
Perhaps not the best thing that's happening today, but certainly the biggest thing going on behind the scenes. Now, bitter experience Anne tells me that if you phone up the Treasury and ask them what the OBR has told them, they won't tell you. They'll just say, That will come at the end of March. But I suppose one of the things that we've I've learned about Rachel Reeves in the last few months is she's just got a really, really terrible poker face. I just think we should watch her when she next comes to the Commons or is next out and about on telly, because you can usually tell if there's good news or bad news in the offering, just from her pose and her poise and how she's looking. Look, if you could invent an AI Rachel Reeves face reader to work out whether there's good or bad news, somebody could get very rich. Anyway, it's not clear that you need a poker face on the global diplomatic stage when dealing with Donald Trump. I suppose that's lesson from overnight. Subtlety doesn't seem to be the name of the game. And big moves by Trump with tariffs.
Just for UK audiences and with an eye on UK politics in our economy, can you explain the significance of what's going on, particularly with China?
Well, indeed, you don't need a poker face barometer to read that this is serious stuff indeed, when it comes to potential consequences for the UK of the way that this trade war is developing. These things are and a lot of countries then catch cold as a result. Remember, Sam, it's only been a couple of weeks since the China financial dialog, as it was rather grandly called by the government, got going. Rachel Reeves saying she was going to lift market access barriers across a range of goods and services in order to boost and find that elusive UK growth, particularly in stuff like agrifood, in financial, and wealth management. Now, that's very interesting because it's a thing it is not likely to escape Donald Trump's BDI. Will you really fancy the UK going gangbusters in relations with Beijing around trade and that big warmup while he is directly in a trade war with presidency. It's like doing the tightrope without a balancing pole.
That's really interesting, actually, because I was reading something by my colleague Ed Conway overnight. He's Sky's economics editor, if you didn't know, but you jolly well should do. He had a piece about why... I don't think this is a stretch at all when you think about it, why actually Britain is pretty well placed at the moment in the global trade shootout. It's not that just that Donald Trump keeps being nice Keir Starmer. His argument is essentially that we're in a usual, unusual position. We've got, unlike most other countries, a trade surplus with the US. We don't have to follow EU tariffs because we're not in the customs union, so we could do what we want on tariffs. And ultimately, and that's the coffee machine kicking in, I'm afraid- Send one over now. If we want, we can give something to the US that they might well want, which is a tough stance on China. The way that we can do that is currently we don't have any tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles, the batteries of Chinese goods coming over to the UK. If we were doing some deal with the US, then we could offer that as a big part of the negotiation.
We've actually got something to offer Donald Trump, all because, and this is the critical bit, Ed writes that he is told, so Ed Conway from Sky is told, that leading members of the Trump administration believe that a trade deal with the UK could be done by the US and sealed in a matter of months. Does that sound in any way feasible?
Well, it's always brilliantly sourced on these things, but here's a potential wrinkle in that. That deal on EVs, China being able to send electric vehicles in large numbers to the UK market, therefore getting round the problems of the EU slapping tariffs on that, is see a lot of what Beijing wants here. Yes, you could do a deal, but it depends what's in the deal. Do you start out getting a much thinner gruel than when you went into the deal? It may be that that is something that Kirstama and Rachel Reeves, have to accept in order to stay away from this tariff cosh. I think he's right about that, but that was not entirely what Rachel Reeves went to Beijing hoping for.
I can quite see a world in which Donald Trump wants to do a very limited deal with the UK based on maybe a handful of sectors just for the purposes of saying that he's done a deal. It's quite helpful in global diplomacy terms for Donald Trump to have somebody who is the shining paragon on the world stage that he can point to when dealing with all the other world leaders, that effectively, he's dunking on the naughty step. It might be that the US can do a limited trade deal and that Kierstheimer jumps at the chance because there are some economic benefits. And yes, it does lead to greater friction with China. But in the end, as we were talking about yesterday, Anne, there is going to be a moment where this government has to choose because it's not going to get everything it wants, both from the EU and the US and China, simultaneously, and Is it coming further down the track.
Fair point, Sam. Now, there's all sorts of EU and Brexit-related things on the agenda today. Kirstam is still in Brussels meeting the Prime Minister of Denmark, as we mentioned there. And back at home, the permanent secretary of the Brexit Department for the Ryecroft is before a Lord's Committee. Hilary Ben is giving a speech on the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly, which largely only happened, let's remind ourselves, because of Rishi Sunak's Winsor Framework Brexit deal. That one still We're working through the system.
I think there's still a speech by nick Thomas-Semmonds today, which will give us a bit more flesh on the bones of where this EU reset, not a reset, renegotiation, not a renegotiation, is getting to. That talk of US Trade Deal makes me ask the question, could it actually be the case that the conclusion of our discussions with the EU take longer than anything that we're talking about with the US? It strikes me that there are just a lot problems, domestic political problems, with getting closer to the EU that are weighing down on Keir Starmer's government, which is causing some of that frustration we've mentioned yesterday about EU countries not being entirely sure what we want. I mean, one of the big EU asks is for greater migration, the youth mobility scheme, which is something particularly pushed by Germany. But it feels like Yvette Cooper is nervous about the impact on migration numbers on any loosening. You've got a demand from the French on fishing that we mentioned yesterday. That is seen as something quite totemic. Can they really throw the fishing industry under a bus in the way that they did so to the farmers?
I think that there is nervousness around the politics of that, even if it's just a rollover of the previous Tori deal. Moreover, I think I was talking to somebody, who are the pro-Europeians in It's not immediately evident. I think Kierstammer has a mixed record on this. He was probably as Shadow Brexit Secretary, but he always gave a far more nuanced view when he was after he became Labor leader. David Lammey is one of the most prominent pro-Europeians in the cabinet. I can think of Hilary Ben and potentially Peter Kyle. But this intake of the top tier of Labor politicians don't feel to me like the type that have a emotional connection to Europe in the same way that previous generations do. That might just allow some of the issues that will exist in the negotiation with Europe to end up gumming the system a bit more.
I think that's a really interesting thought, isn't it? That we think of this as being largely remainers. A lot of Euro-sceptics see it that way. But it is certainly true. I think that here's Tom lent out from that, even in the way that he handles things, Sam, If you look at the fact that nick Thomas-Simmons, who's very close to the Prime Minister personally, is basically handling these dealings with the EU rather than the foreign secretary. That was very controversial inside the foreign office. I'd like to keep hold of that. It's fair enough to say David Lammey still gets involved in collateral stuff. But when it comes to the EU, you sense that Starmer wants to move a bit more cautiously and not have that, Hey, we used to be, remain this bumper sticker on the government vehicle there.
One of the things that this government did in so many different ways was tie his hands while it was in opposition. Now, part of the negotiation will be whether or not to ease trade restrictions when it comes to basically agriculture and farm groups coming in the country. To do that, we need to follow EU rules pretty much in perpetuity. But back then in opposition, the Labor Party made an absolute commitment, and I'm going to read it to you, not to do that. They said, We've left the European Union and we're not going back in any form. We don't support dynamic alignment. There you have it. You have on the record statements from the Labor Party that they're not going to do what they sound like they're going to do. That promise-breaking of which this government has a bit of a reputation, I think, will come back potentially to hurt them. I'm told Morgan Sweeney basically says, Don't talk too positively about the EU because there are reform votes, votes that you'll lose to reform if you do so. That's the dynamic that's holding stuff back. Reform, of course, the party of the day because the big overnight by Sky News and the Times from Ugov, which put reform in first place for the first time ever as we embark on this era of three-party politics at the top.
Reform on 25, the Labor Party on 24 and the Conservatives on 21, with the Lib Dems on 14 and Greens on nine. Being worried about reform just is the direction of British politics at the moment.
Can I just check in something from playbook this morning, which I thought was really interesting, Sam from Politico, that if you look at that Hugo of Pole and you look at those favourability ratings, yes, reform doing brilliantly, but you're seeing the real damages to Kemi Badernot with a net favourability rating falling even further. We have a story that she got her team together and told them they had to pull their finger out, not complain, and just do more to help. It was a bit of the cases, as you say, in the Soviet Union, is the beating will continue until morale improves I just wanted to pick up on that.
There was a meeting yesterday, and Playbook have stood it up. There was a whiff that this meeting was taking place in Harry Cole's Column in the Sun, and that there was going to be a meeting of Torrey staff and that potentially Camille Badun was going to go. We were told, It's completely and utterly untrue. There is no meeting. It's nonsense. Then later yesterday, as Playbook says, some meeting did go ahead. I just want to put on the record the general displeasure of most journalists when they get a complete and utter denial, which in the face of further reporting, looks untrue.
You, with your appetite for truth, Sam, you're really out of fashion at the moment.
Listen, let's move on because it's not worth picking much longer over that. Again, the knock-on effects of reform, not just in the Tori Party, but in the Labor Party, too. That's the subject of an extract from this brilliant, brilliant new book by Gabriel Pogrom and Patrick Maguire this morning. I think this is one of the best revelations that we've had so far in the serialization that you've got in the Times. It speaks to the very biggest things that we've been talking about on this podcast this morning. What they reveal is that there was a secret plan inside Labor before the election, spearheaded by Angela Reina working together with Gordon Brown to change the rules on who can donate to political parties and effectively stop overseas nationals using companies to give money. At the moment, foreigners are banned from donating to the UK politics, but they can get around that rule by donating via a company. This is relevant in the context of Elon Musk and reform, but all the parties have been at it, all the parties do it. What Gabriel and Patrick reveal this morning, and I'm really struck like this, is the Labor Party will all go on this plan, and there was going to be an announcement in 2023, and Gordon Brown had booked his flights to go down to London to make an announcement.
I think it was at Chatham House alongside Angela Reina. Then, Morgan McSweeney, the Chief of Staff, at the advice, the explicit advice of the Chief Labor Fundraiser, Wahid Ali, Lord Ali, basically called on them to abandon the announcement. The entire enterprise was put in the bin and there was no event, there was no announcement, and Labor continuing to accept donations, even if the money is thought to come from overseas individuals, because that is legal. Other political parties do the same, and that would clear the way potentially for overseas donors to donate to reform as well in big numbers. That's an incredible amount of influence for Wahid Ali, who, of course, got a pass into Downing Street, had direct access to all sorts of people, and gave those infamous clothes and glasses to the Prime Minister. Quite what was going on in opposition days in the Labor Party. It's still begger's belief for me.
That's an extraordinary yarn. I didn't know that.
It's quite something. But we just quickly have to touch on something, and this is going to be a bit of a hand break turn tonally, but it's really quite important, and it's one of the big things that's going on in Parliament today, so we can't ignore it entirely. Anne, do you want to just talk about the role of MPs when it comes to the conviction and the safety of the conviction of Lucy Letby.
Yes, a press conference today will present new medical evidence in the case of Lucy Letby, the convicted infant serial killer. This is a story that isn't going away. The veteran Tori MP, and of course, also very seasoned campaigner, David Davis, is on the march for Letby to get a retrial and prominent among defenders. Also Nadine Doris, former Culture Secretary, who has a pretty big megaphone herself. Both are against that let me is innocent. This is interesting, whether it stays on the fringes of MPs and former MPs, or is it starting to become one of those core celebrities about an alleged miscarriage of justice that really gets more traction across the political divide. We might know a bit more about that after the press conference today.
Do you think it's actually helpful that politicians get involved in cases like this, or does it actually just end up undermining faith in the justice system? I suppose that all comes down to whether or not this is a miscarriage of justice.
I think it's a very mixed picture. I think there are cases like the Birmingham 6, which then did turn out there had been a miscarriage of justice and you needed MPs involved. What happens often is it becomes a slightly speculative case, and of course, the court has already come to a decision. But hey, I guess that is democracy. Politicians will sometimes question decisions of the courts. So yeah, I come down on that side.
We're saying that it's a press conference that David Davis is doing, meaning meaning that he doesn't have parliamentary privilege. It's not part of official parliamentary proceedings, which are the only things that are protected from things like libel law, contempl law, and all the rest of it. So David Davis doing it in more traditional format there. Anyway, we have hit our 20 minutes. Thank you very much indeed, Anne. Busy day ahead. I'll see you in the morning.
See you tomorrow.
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House. Together we can truly make America great again. We are in for an unpredictable but fascinating four years. We're going to be following every twist and turn for the first 100 days. We'll be bringing you the latest updates and analysis first thing every morning. Join me, James McHew. Me, Martha Kalmatt. And me, Mark Stone for Trump 100 every weekday at 6: 00 AM, wherever you get your podcast.
Sky News' deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Anne McElvoy look at the day ahead in British politics. Overnight ...