Transcript of Analysis: Israel and Iran set for 'retaliatory cycle' of strikes without diplomatic intervention

Auril Goldschild there from the Israeli Embassy in London. Let's just take a look at some of the damage caused by this Iranian strike on Israel. Israel says, Iran fired almost 200 missiles into its territory. Footage shows missiles flying over Tel Aviv, over Jerusalem, also over the Israel-Lebanon border. Our data and forensics team has identified and geo-located footage from around the country, including this, which shows missiles landing near the Eilon Mall in Tel Aviv. Footage also shows missiles landing at or near the Nevitim Air Base, south of the West Bank, as well as the Shalabour Chhabad Gaderer School, and Hrsalia on the northern outskirts of Tel Aviv. Let's bring in our defense and security analyst, Michael Clarke. Good morning, Michael. Just tell us how dangerous a moment you think this is.

Yes, undoubtedly, Mark. I mean, this is a dangerous moment because we are on the brink of a much broader war. I mean, since the seventh of October last year, which is just exactly a year ago now, since the attack, we've all hoped that this would be contained. The Western world has worked very hard to keep this whole conflict contained to the Gaza problem. But it now looks as if it is going to become wider. We don't know how much more serious that will be, but undoubtedly in the last two or three weeks, Israel has decided to take on all of its enemies, this axis of resistance, as Iran calls it, the Ring of Fire, as Israel calls it. We don't really know what the Iranian response can be to that or will be to that. So undoubtedly, this is a dangerous moment. The attacks last night, and you're just pointing out there that the sky forensics team has located, as we said last night, In the light of day, we'll be able to see what damage has been done, where these missiles landed. Undoutedly, some of them did land, and that itself will provoke an Israeli response.

Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, has been very clear about that. He said there will be a response. It will be strong. We'll see how strong it is. That risks another round of retaliatory action from Iran.

Right. I guess what happens going forward will depend on what Iran does in response to the Israelis.

Yes. I think the Western world, United States in particular, but also European countries, will be trying to say both to the Israelis and the Iranians, just think about this. If you're going to respond, respond in a choreographed way, as you did in the April 13th attacks, the last round of this 350 odd missile attacks against Israel. Do it in a choreographed way so that that gives us some elbow room, some diplomatic room for maneuver to draw a line under this and try and dial down the danger that this will break out into a more generalized Middle Eastern conflict. See how that goes.

Yeah. Just a few moments ago, we were just showing a picture of an explosion in the last few minutes in this city from where we are broadcasting this morning, Beirut. So it's clear that Israeli attacks are continuing on on this city. And further south in Southern Lebanon, Michael, more Israeli troops coming across, more armored units coming across, intense fighting reported by the Israelis, by both sides, in fact. It does look as though that is turning into a more significant operation.

Yes, it does. The Israelis have obviously decided that they're going to move into Southern Lebanon in force. And we reckon that there's probably 10 or 12 brigades involved in this. We know certainly of the the 98th Airborne Division, a very famous Airborne Division, the 98th, maybe the 36th Armor Division, the possibly the 146th Division. Elements of those three or elements have been put together into three divisions, and it looks like a three division attack, although maybe with not quite the numbers that that might imply, but we're looking at maybe 20, 25,000 Israeli troops, plus all of their equipment moving into Southern Lebanon. I think as John Sparks was reporting earlier on to you, a lot of engineering equipment, and that's always a sign. When you see forces moving in with engineering equipment, it usually indicates that they intend to do either quite a big job or stay for quite some time. I think that's where we are in Lebanon. I think the other thing, Mark, which is interesting, is that I think the Israelis are cashing in on their intelligence operation over the last 2-3 years. We know Israeli intelligence is very good, and they've been very intensively operating all across the region in the last 12 months since the October seventh attacks.

They can locate a lot of targets in Hezbollah. They can locate targets with the militias in Syria and Iraq. They can locate targets with the Houthis. They know what's going on in Iran. I think in a sense, the Israelis are now on a roll, or they feel they are, and they're going for broke. They are using all that they know of the intelligence of their opponents to go for quite a lot of them, if not all of them, more or less simultaneously.

Yeah. I mean, it's intelligence they didn't seem to have in the last such operation, 2006. That seemed a very rushed operation. Well, it was a very rushed operation, much different to this one, Michael. But just look It's finally a quick word on the operation last night to defend Israel. Deborah Haynes is saying that RAF typhoon jets were involved. What would they have been doing, do you think?

Not very much, to be honest. I think that at the time, we weren't sure how many drones might have been involved. It looks as if this whole attack was ballistic missiles. That's still to be confirmed. But having aircraft in the air, having fighters with missiles on board, their own missiles. They can only be used really against drones. There's not much a fighter can do against ballistic missiles incoming. So it may well be that RAF typhoons from Akutiri, they were used. We're told that by the British government. But I imagine that they patrolling in the area of Northern Israel on the look out for drones which don't seem to have been part of the attack. In that respect, they were part of it. They will have been part of the general surveillance, and it will have released Israeli aircraft to be doing other things if the IFRF aircraft and American aircraft were out there looking for drones. But if this attack was entirely ballistic missile-based, then I can be fairly confident that the fighters in the air wouldn't have had much to do that they could contribute.

All right, Michael, thank you very much indeed.