Transcript of Marner's NMC Stopped Rantanen From Being A Maple Leaf!? | CJ Show

How close were the leafs in on trying to land him from Carolina?

Well, let me rewind the tape a bit, and I'm going to answer that question, but I'm going to say something else first. Okay. When you're talking about Miko Rantan's contract, and you'll follow my line of thinking here, it's not that advanced. Sure. But with Miko Rantan, the biggest winner in him signing that deal at the deadline, other than him and his family, is Mitch Marner. Because Mitch Marner is now the number one without question free agent set to potentially be available on July first. I don't think Michal Rantan's number necessarily affects Mich Marner. I mean, certainly, he's got a better points per game and all those things. When teams do those evaluations, when you're looking for comparables, that's basically what the negotiations are built on. You might argue that Mitch Marner doesn't deserve to surpass Michal Rant in his contract. But the one big, huge screaming caveat here is Mitch Marner might be on the open market. When you're on the open market and you're available to 32 different potential employers, you're worth whatever someone says you're worth. It doesn't matter what any other player in the league makes. At a time when the salary cap is about to explode in a season where, frankly, Mitch Marner has even exploded a little more than he has in the past.

Listen, he's been a consistently high-performing player. He's been nominated for a Sulky Trophy. He's been a top point producer serve from pretty much the minute he entered the league, but certainly in the last number of years. He's in a tremendous position with leverage to... It's not just about picking a destination, but to reset the bar for what top offensive players make in the league. And so that bleeds into your question about the Leifs and Rantan. What happened in the lead up to this deadline is that it became clear to the Leifs that Marner wasn't going to negotiate an extension with them prior to the deadline. They weren't going to get the certainty that Mitch Marner was going to be a lead long term. That's not the same thing, and I really have to underline this. It's not to say he won't still be a Maple leaf beyond the season. That's in the realm of conversation possibility still. But Mitch Marner didn't want to give up the chance to potentially peak it at free agency by signing a contract now. And so the leaves have to start considering what their future looks without Mitch Marner. That's the natural conclusion of that set of decisions.

I mean, Mitch didn't want to negotiate with the Leifs. And he still said he wants to be in Toronto. Two things can be true at once. This story has a lot of nuance, and I'm worried about getting radioed by one piece of it. But I do think the nuance is important here. Mitch has earned the ability and he's performed at a level that he can He can do something like, no, what top NHL player in his prime goes to free agency? The last one might be John Tavares, the last comparable to what this situation is now trending towards being. And so, Mitch Marner has decided that he wants to ride this through. He wants to... As much as we've talked through the season, the Leaps want to see the playoffs before signing Mitch, he wants to see the playoffs before signing in Toronto or thinking about it. My understanding is there's tons of conversations that go on with the Leaps in Marner's camp. I don't think there were really any negotiations. At this point, I think Mitch has communicated the Leaps. I'm not ready to think about those contracts. It's not like he's turning down offers in an official way.

He didn't engage. You know what I'm saying? They didn't sit down and you say, I want to pay you eight, and I'm saying, I want 12, and you split the difference or whatever. Those aren't real numbers with the Mitch Meyer.

Not real numbers.

Merely making a point. Well, there's no point in getting into numbers. He hasn't put... There's no numbers. The numbers aren't there. I'm sure the leaf said, Hey, we would do something like this, but they might have even made an offer. But Mitch's side has said, We're not ready to negotiate. He's in a really compelling position now because... And so that's put to least. The least now have that information ahead of the deadline, well, what did they do? First of all, this was a go for it year for Toronto. They had first round picks in '26, '27, beyond. Second round in 25, they didn't trade that in the end. They have some prospects that a lot of teams like in Fraser, Mitten, Easton Cow, and Ben Danford. Mitten obviously ends up going to Boston in a deal. We'll talk about it a bit. But the Leaps had that capital to deal from, and they were looking around for the best possible options. And among those options was Miko Rantan. And so, yes, the Leifs had, I think that there was a wave of different conversations with Carolina. I think that there was different possibilities put on the table for what a trade could look like, including right up until before he ended up becoming a conditional Dallas Star on that negotiation.

By the end, it seemed that Carolina's... If you want to liken it to the deal they got from Dallas, I think Matthew Nies was the Stankovan in that deal. And then you're looking at all the draft capital beyond that. Perhaps one of Toronto's other prospects was involved. I don't have confirmation on That, but that's the framework of what the deal could have been at the end. I think that there was an earlier version where, hey, would you flip Marner for Rantan? But Mitz Marner is a no-movement clause. So that never happened. And so Basically, the leaves were in on Rantan because they have to start imagining what the future could look like without Marner. The crazy thing about all this is there's still a world where Mitch Marner just signs a big money extension in Toronto at the end of all this. But he's got leverage and he's going to use it. That's how it is. He's earned that. This isn't about good and evil or anything like that. This is straight up, this guy is a top level talent in the league, having an awesome season, and he's got the contractual rights to chop himself to the whole league as of July first.

It looks like right now, that's how this is going to play out.

Marner for Ranted would have been the holy shit of holy shits of trades on deadline day. A one for one, superstar caliber for Superstar caliber player, swap for each other, both of them bending days. Holy shit. I'm just processing that now. That's crazy.

Do you know what's crazy? These guys have had mirroring careers in the sense that they're same stage of their careers, same year. They're both in six years, second contracts. The difference was Miko Rantan didn't get full no move protection in his deal, in his second deal when he was eligible for it. Mitch Marner did. Miko was blindsided by that initial trade from Colorado. Colorado got to the point where they weren't sure they could sign Miko before the deadline because Miko wouldn't engage in contract talks. So they decided to trade him. The Leaps didn't have that ability. Mitch Marner had a no movement clause. The Leaps couldn't tell him The least couldn't send him to some other place and be like, Hey, you're not negotiating. We got to make our decisions. That was the key difference. That's why it's so funny. That's why players fight hard to get those no movement clauses, even modified no trades. It It gives them some control of their future because I do think there's a world if... Look, it's not a very productive way for us to get in this conversation, but there's a world that if Mitch Marner didn't have that trade protection, I think that trade happened.

I think If everything else was the same, except for he didn't have the no move clause, I think they probably make that move and see Try with Miko. Anyway, what a deadline. Then as my original point is no one benefits more with rent and signing than Marner because there are so many comparables there. If they both hit July first on the same day, obviously, lots of teams will be bidding for both. It might muddy the waters. This is now just a... This is set up to be an auction. This is just set up like, hey, at a time when all you teams are getting $8 million more in Capspace or $7 million more in Capspace, and there's lots of teams that there I know that need a superstar, who wants to pay what for me? What lifestyle can you give my family? What opportunity can you offer me? Chicago, you need a superstar.

What does that look like? I've linked Chicago to Marner since that live show in Cobert. I said Chicago. I want that known.

There you go. I'm not saying it's Chicago, but I'm just saying, Carolina, you need your star. Hey, Vegas, you always need a star.

You always need a star.

You're always rolling the dice. You got one more star. Hey, Florida teams, you got a great place to live, you're competitive.

We'll get Florida in a second.

No, but I'm saying, look at it. I haven't done the numbers. I haven't looked at this closely, but off the top of my head, I do know that Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad are both UFAs in Florida. The Panthers probably have some cap space if they want to go for Marner. I'm not saying they do. This is the opportunity, though. This is that Mitch is unlocking by potentially going to July first. And so the stakes are so high for Mitch. Obviously, they have been all season. Look, he's performed without this guarantee. He's having his best offensive year. He made the play that helped Canada score the Mc Golden goal at the Four Nations.

That's what we're calling it, the Mc Golden goal?

No, I don't know. I saw someone call it that.

I was about to say, Do we have a sponsorship with McDonald's or something that I didn't know about?

Well, you already said the McDonald's had been renamed McDavid's in a few places.

I did see that, yes.

I don't think anyone else is. I don't think No one's truly calling it that. I just saw it, referred to that, and I was like, That's unique. Anyway, Marner's had a great year. He's earned this. Man, we've spent like 30 something minutes and talked about one trade and then one fallout of the trade that didn't happen.

I was wondering I was wondering if you wanted to segue into the leaf's day since we went down the Mitch Marner hallway, and it's not going to be the last time we enter that zone. There's a part of me purely for the story, purely It's a further story that wants the Marner story to extend into July first, so that way we can all see just the options available to him, the money possibilities for him. You talk about the craziness that could happen in an NHL season, on the ice, off the ice, that's right up there, if it gets to that point.

If you're looking at it, the most likely option right now is Mitch Marner becoming a free agent on July first. That's the most likely option. Players typically don't sign after the deadline with their own teams until the off seat, until it gets to they're eliminated from the playoffs, essentially. The next window of opportunity truly for the Leaps to negotiate with Marner will be once the season is done. Now, they're hoping that's like... They're hoping they go to game seven of the Cup final. Wasn't game seven of the Cup final last year, like June 23rd?

It was like super late in the year.

My point is the Leaps are hoping it's not until June 23rd that they're even having that next conversation because it means they're for a Stanley Cup. But that's the next window now for the Lefs to try to sign Marner. If you're Marner, I guess unless they're truly overpaying or if you just get... Here's the thing. I think we have to remember, this isn't all big. As much as this isn't all set in stone 100% going to happen. You're dealing with a very important decision for a man, for his family. Marner could have a change of heart between now and July first and decide in the end, he doesn't want to go there. Absolutely. But my point is this, the most likely outcome in my view right now is that he becomes a free agent because he's put himself on that track now. He didn't even engage with the leaves on contract talk. He has set himself up to where he's earned that right in every way, shape, and form to do it. Unless after the season, the least offer him something he can't refuse or maybe, again, his heartstrings are pulling at him. Maybe they get close to the playouts and don't get...

We can game theory this all kinds of ways. But I think ultimately, the most likely conclusion to this is that he tests for agency, and then I don't know what happens. It's happened before where guys even get to almost free agency and still sign with their original team. Remember, Steven Stamkos, when he was in his prime, signed an extension with Tampa on June 29th. That could even happen where he gets close to it and he's thinking about it and then he pivots back. It's hard to say. There's just all kinds of possibilities possibilities.